What is the economic outlook due to the coronavirus!? "Key points and event schedule for the week of April 13"
In Japan as well, emergency declarations have finally been issued in seven prefectures, and movement is shrinking due to requests for restraint.
Even so, the number of infections in Tokyo is doubling, and there is talk that Tokyo and New York earlier this few weeks ago are tracing the same path.
Markets are gradually regaining some calm, risk-off is retreating, and stock prices are unwinding.
Whether this trend continues this week, whether the unwind of risk-off ends as a mere adjustment, or whether it returns to a downward/risk-off flow, is something to watch.
Also, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom is reported to be recovering well.
We don’t know when he will return, but after his return, it is a concern whether talks with the EU on withdrawal will resume and how far discussions will progress.
◎ This Week’s Points of Focus
1) Expansion of the coronavirus
This week, the point is which will dominate: the risk-off due to negatives from the coronavirus, or the unwinding of risk-off driven by unwinding flows and coronavirus countermeasure budgets, and which will prevail.
In European countries where the infection pace had been expanding, peakouts are occurring, and the daily number of new infections appears to be decreasing.
Italy postponed urban lockdowns until May 3, but some countries are considering lifting lockdowns.
With the end in sight becoming a little clearer from an endless situation, risk-off is retreating.
In the United States, the infection pace is still expanding.
Although infections are rising, policy budgets are being announced one after another, and stock prices are stabilizing.
However, European infection spread is exploding, and more economic data reflecting the virus’s impact will begin to appear as one month passes since lockdowns started.
As the deterioration in the economy caused by the virus becomes visible in data, concerns about the economy could lead to risk-off.
Attention will be on US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Australia’s employment statistics as notable releases.
To confirm risk-off trends, attention will be on stock prices, bonds, and whether the VIX index, often called the market fear gauge, settles down.
The VIX index is said to have a level of 40 as a threshold; attention is on whether it can fall below that level.
2) G20 Central Bank Governors/Finance Ministers Meeting and IMF Meeting
This weekend, the G20 Central Bank Governors and Finance Ministers meeting is scheduled to be held.
Also, the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are scheduled for the weekend.
The focus is on the economic impact of coronavirus and the outlook for the economy.
We expect some negative results and outlooks, but it’s important to see how bad the results and outlooks turn out to be.
Also, since it’s over the weekend, it is expected to affect positions at the start of next week, so be careful.
3) Crude oil prices
At the end of last week, reports said that all countries except Mexico would participate in production cuts at the OPEC+ and G20 energy ministers’ meetings.
President Trump says Mexico has promised to cut production, but confirmations have not been obtained from Mexico.
This week, whether Mexico will participate in cuts and whether producing nations can coordinate cuts is the focus.
Also, whether production cuts can push the oil price higher, from the $20s to the $30s, is of interest.
In oil-related news, attention will be on US crude inventories and Baker Hughes rig counts.
◎ This Week’s Economic Event Schedule
April 13 (Monday)
Easter Monday holiday (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Germany, Switzerland, France, United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Poland)
April 14 (Tuesday)
10:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Index
April 15 (Wednesday)
00:05 USD Bullard (St. Louis Fed) remarks (2022 voting member)
01:30 USD Evans (Chicago Fed) remarks (2021 voting member)
04:00 USD Bostic (Atlanta Fed) remarks (2021 voting member)
09:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
15:45 EUR France HICP (Consumer Price Index)
16:00 EUR Spain HICP (CPI)
16:30 SEK Sweden CPI (Consumer Price Index)
17:00 EUR Italy HICP (CPI)
21:30 USD US Retail Sales
23:00 CADBank of Canada policy rate and statement
23:30 USDCrude oil inventories
April 16 (Thursday)
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
00:15 CADPoloz BOC Press Conference
02:00 USD Bostic (Atlanta Fed) remarks (2021 voting member)
03:00 USD Beige Book
10:30 AUDAustralia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
15:00 EUR Germany HICP (CPI)
17:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate
21:30 USDInitial Jobless Claims・Building Permits・Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
22:30 GBPTenreiro BOE External Member and Broadbent Deputy Governor speak
April 17 (Friday)
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings (through 19
10:30 AUDAustralia Retail Sales
11:00 CNY China GDP and Retail Sales
18:00 EUR Euro Area HICP (CPI)
23:00 GBPHolden BoE External Member and Ramsden BoE Deputy Governor remarks
April 18 (Saturday)
IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings (through 19
02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
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