Is it possible to predict?

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Serialized "Trading Philosophy"…3

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A joke or anecdote I picked up on the Internet, a strange answer on a school test.

“What is a food name that goes well with curry in India or the Middle East?”

“Yes, that’s right.”

The answer is “naan,” but the question is “What is that?” (YES or NO) → the unexpected answer is “Yes.” It shows the student’s knowledge is correct, and the exchange of words is correct as well... If I were the grader, I’d give a perfect score.

The future of stock prices is unpredictable—.

This is the premise that “market-technical analysts” consider.

Therefore, the idea is to respond with “technique,” which is one kind of ‘doctrine.’

This is the approach advocated by Lin Investment Research Institute.

Therefore, there are many opportunities to introduce simple trading techniques that anyone can implement.

In contrast, there is a philosophy that “a certain degree of prediction is possible.”

“We don’t know what will happen one month from now, but we know what will happen the next day. For example, we can predict with fairly good accuracy ten minutes ahead.”

I oppose this logic outright.

Indeed, predicting the price “ten minutes later” could be more accurate than predicting a month ahead, but this is a condition given equally to everyone. Therefore, it does not guarantee an advantage in market competition.

Rather, from a high-level view that roughly grasps price movement, the argument that predictions a month ahead are more accurate (and thus give an edge over other market participants) tends to win the day.

That said,

Even for “market-technical analysts” who insist on responding with techniques, it doesn’t mean they think prediction is always completely off the mark.

They simply strive to avoid depending on predictions being right or wrong.

Therefore, they don’t deny trading methods that rely on prediction accuracy.

However, in that case, it is understood that one must tighten the conditions, such as narrowing the opportunities for action.