Economic indicators reflecting the impact of Corona released one after another! "April 1 Highlights and Event Schedule"
The fluctuations in stock prices are gradually returning to a calm rhythm.
Until last year, a drop of -$400 would have been newsworthy, but now it hardly feels like there is much volatility.
The number of infections is being announced steadily, and it feels like the spread of the coronavirus is being priced in.
However, going forward, how much of an impact will seep into the real economy and cause deterioration in the numbers, making a recession seem like a material factor.
◎ Today's Points of Attention
1) Economic Indicators
Today, economic indicators affected by the coronavirus will be released one after another.
Moreover, the types of indicators are highly watched and are likely to be considered important in assessing the economy and the outlook.
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Yesterday's China Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0 (Expected 44.8; Previous 35.7), an unbelievable result.
Since China Manufacturing PMI is announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there is suspicion of data manipulation, which slightly undermines trust.
In China, private Caixin PMI is considered to be more reliable than the official National Bureau of Statistics data.
It remains to be seen whether it will significantly exceed expectations as with yesterday’s National Bureau of Statistics release.
European Manufacturing PMI
The revised value of the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) indicating the economic outlook will be released.
Given the relatively weak initial readings, all eyes are on whether the revision will further downwardly adjust the figure.
ADP Employment Report
In the United States, a decline in employment reduces income and lowers consumption.
Since the U.S. economy is driven by consumption, a drop in employment and consumption can trigger a negative economic spiral.
Therefore, the Fed also places emphasis on employment data.
Attention is on how badly the ADP employment data released today has deteriorated.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, which reflects business sentiment, will be released.
Attention is on the manufacturing sector in the United States, which has been heavily affected by COVID-19, and what the future economic outlook will be.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
Wednesday, April 1
08:50 JPY Bank of Japan Short-Term Outlook (Tankan)
09:30 AUDRBA Board Meeting Minutes- Australia construction permits
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI (Forecast:
15:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
16:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
16:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
16:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
17:00 EUR Euro Area Manufacturing PMI
17:30 GBPUK Manufacturing PMI
21:15 USDADP Employment Report
22:45 USD US Manufacturing PMI
23:00 USDISM Manufacturing Index (Forecast: 44.8)
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, April 2
03:00 USD Rosengren/Boston Fed President remarks
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