China Manufacturing PMI and Canada/UK GDP in focus! "Key points and event schedule for March 31"

Yesterday, there was an expectation that Governor Koike of Tokyo would hold an emergency press conference, and there was attention that announcements such as a city lockdown might be made.

With the focus on a possible lockdown, even rumors moved the market, and once it was understood that a lockdown would not occur, risk-off faded and the dollar/yen rose.

Also, yesterday, a sad event occurred: Ken Shimura passed away from pneumonia caused by the coronavirus.

In Japan, it seems that the sense of crisis changed with Shimura's passing.

We pray for Ken Shimura's peaceful rest.

Even abroad, prominent figures such as Prime Minister Boris Johnson have contracted the coronavirus.

Similar to Japan, as the sense of crisis rises, consumption and behavior tend to decline, and it is expected that the economy may naturally head toward a recession.

◎ Yesterday's Points of Focus

1) Economic Indicators

Last month, the Chinese manufacturing PMI of 35.7 was an astonishing figure, and all eyes are on how much it has recovered.

Factories in China have resumed operation, but the level of perceived business conditions in manufacturing is what to watch for the recovery.

GDP will be released in the UK and Canada.

Since it is GDP data from before the impact of the coronavirus, numbers are not expected to be very bad, but if they come in below expectations, disappointment is likely to rise.

2) Coronavirus Countermeasures

There are reports that the pace of infections has slowed in Italy and Spain, but cities were locked down to contain the spread.

In New York and Tokyo, the number of infections is also rising.

There are rumors of states of emergency and lockdowns in New York and Tokyo, so if reports such as “a press conference will be held” appear, markets will begin to move on rumors of lockdowns alone, and trading will start.

We will be watching how the market incorporates various rumors.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

March 31 (Tuesday)

10:00　CNYChina Manufacturing PMI

15:00　GBPUK GDP

15:45　EUR　France HICP (CPI)

16:55　EUR　Germany Unemployment

18:00　EUR　Italy HICP (CPI)

18:00　EUR　Eurozone HICP (CPI)

21:30　CADCanada GDP

22:45　USD　Chicago PMI

23:00　USD　U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

April 1 (Wednesday)

08:50　JPY　Bank of Japan Short-Term View

09:30　AUDRBA Meeting Minutes・Australian Building Permits

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