Will risk-off accelerate again!? "March 30 focal points and event schedule"

From the 29th, Europe and the UK have entered daylight saving time.

Starting today, Europe and the UK’s economic indicators are one hour earlier, so please be careful.

This week also begins with high volatility.

With the end of the month and fiscal year approaching, movements in on-demand levels such as the on-call rate and the London FIX are likely to be larger than usual.

◎ Today's Highlights

1) COVID-19 Expansion Countermeasures

COVID-19 cases are spreading again over the weekend.

From the rise in cases and the spread to new areas, countries are expected to implement countermeasures, with announcements of city lockdowns and travel restrictions drawing attention.

In particular, there is attention on whether Tokyo and New York might be locked down.

Tokyo had weekend stay-at-home requests, but as cases continue to rise, there is focus on whether Governor Koike’s declaration of lockdown (capital lockdown) will be announced.

In New York, President Trump tweeted about a lockdown for NY, which was met with opposition by the NY State Governor and withdrawn, but as cases rise, a lockdown becomes a real possibility.

What Tokyo and New York share is that both have stock exchanges; if lockdowns extend to London and other places, market impact could be significant due to exchange closures.

Not only economic stagnation but also potential market turmoil should be watched closely.

2) Market Conditions

Last week, stock prices rebounded and risk-off seemed to ease, but is it really settled, or will risk-off gain momentum again?

- The VIX (fear index) remains in the 60s; attention on whether it will rise again.

- Oil prices hover around $20; will they clearly break below this level?

- Gold is in the $1,600 range; will it tilt toward selling in a renewed risk-off?

- Bond yields falling and the dollar index rising may indicate a renewed risk-off similar to the previous fortnight; watch closely.

If risk-off dominates as described above, stock prices may resume falling toward new lows.

Pay attention to market conditions.

◎ Today’s Event Schedule

March 30 (Monday)

16:00 EUR Spain HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices)

18:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index

21:00 EUR Germany HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) (flash)

23:00 USD U.S. Pending Home Sales

March 31 (Tuesday)

06:45 NZD New Zealand Building Permits

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