What is the impact of COVID-19? A week focusing on indicators such as ISM and employment — "Key points for the week of March 30 and event schedule"

 

Last week stock prices rebounded and rose, but will this momentum continue this week, or was it just a correction to the decline? All eyes are likely to be on this week's movements.

 

The number of infected people has surpassed 580,000 worldwide, and the death toll has exceeded 25,000.

There is hardly any country where infections have not appeared.

 

In Japan, since last weekend the requests to refrain from going out have become stronger, and with the Olympics being postponed, perhaps people have become more willing to announce infections openly. The number of infections is also rising rapidly.

 

This week too, it seems the world will continue to move around the coronavirus.

 

Also, Europe and the UK have entered daylight saving time from this week.

 

◎ This Week’s Points of Attention

 

 

1) Economic Indicators

 

Last week’s release of U.S. initial jobless claims was 3.28 million, the largest on record.

This week, economic indicators affected by the coronavirus will be released one after another.

Bad figures will be released one after another, showing how much the economy stagnated due to the coronavirus in numerical terms and as economic data.

 

This week, the U.S. employment indicators and the ISM, a leading economic index, will be released.

In response to a series of data showing recession and economic deterioration, all eyes are on how the market will react and whether stock prices can withstand it.

The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 have fallen from highs and have rebounded about 38% from last week.

If a reversal occurs here and another decline begins, there could be further new lows.

 

 

 

2) Coronavirus

 

Europe, which had been the center of infections, has shifted to the United States as the center since last week.

Italy, France, Germany, and others halted economic activity to contain the virus.

 

The United States is also expanding infections and is expected to announce further countermeasures, or movement restrictions to prevent the spread of infections.

Over the weekend, President Trump tweeted about restricting movement in New York, prompting a strong rebuke from the New York State governor, and Trump subsequently retracted the tweet.

Although retracted this time, if infections continue to spread, restrictions on movement may be announced again.

 

This week, attention will be on whether measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and economic stagnation will outweigh the support measures for the economy.

 

 

 

3) Other Risks

 

・North Korea missile

・Russia’s President Putin serving for life

・UK-EU withdrawal negotiations

・U.S. presidential election

 

When the impact of the coronavirus settles, factors that may be viewed as market catalysts will need to be watched closely.

 

 

 

 

◎ This Week’s Economic Event Schedule

 

 

March 30 (Monday)

 

16:00 EUR Spain HICP (Consumer Price Index)

18:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index

21:00 EUR Germany HICP (Consumer Price Index) (preliminary)

23:00 USD U.S. Existing Home Sales Pending

 

 

March 31 (Tuesday)

 

06:45 NZD New Zealand Building Permits

10:00 CNYChina Manufacturing PMI

15:00 GBPUK GDP

15:45 EUR France HICP (Consumer Price Index)

16:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate

18:00 EUR Italy HICP (Consumer Price Index)

18:00 EUR Euro Zone HICP (Consumer Price Index)

21:30 CADCanada GDP

22:45 USD Chicago PMI

23:00 USD U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

 

 

April 1 (Wednesday)

 

08:50 JPY Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity

09:30 AUDRBA Meeting Minutes・Australia Building Permits

10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI

15:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI

16:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI

16:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI

16:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI

17:00 EUR Euro Area Manufacturing PMI

17:30 GBPUK Manufacturing PMI

21:15 USDADP Employment Report

22:45 USD U.S. Manufacturing PMI

23:00 USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

April 2 (Thursday)

 

17:30 GBPUK Construction PMI

21:30 USD U.S. Balance of Trade

21:30 CAD Canada Trade Balance

 

 

April 3 (Friday)

 

09:30 AUDAustralia retail sales

10:45 CNYCaixin Services PMI

16:00 TRY Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)

16:45 EUR Italy Composite & Services PMI

16:50 EUR France Composite & Services PMI

16:55 EUR Germany Composite & Services PMI

17:00 EUR Euro Area Composite & Services PMI

17:30 GBPUK Services PMI

18:00 EUR Euro Area Retail Sales

21:30 USDNFP Employment, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings

22:45 USD U.S. Composite & Services PMI

23:00 USDISM Non-Manufacturing Index

 

 

April 4 (Saturday)

 

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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