North Korea If there is no movement today, the next step is... once we can seize the timing for the current risk retreat, this market could lead to a win?!

This has been an extremely tense weekend,

today there is a military parade to commemorate the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's late President Kim Il-sung.

Around noon there were also false reports of missiles being launched from North Korea’s submarines.

It’s a hurried situation, but for now today and tomorrow, even if there are developments, the market is hardly moving,

which means there is no real problem, but we would like clear information.



Now, the time window for a nuclear test is narrowing,

and if it is conducted, it is said the morning is the most likely, and today in particular

the likelihood of a postponement seems strong.

So, what time will be the next day of focus? Here is a rough listing of upcoming events.





April 15 – 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s late President Kim Il-sung
April 25 – 85nd anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army
April 30 – last day of U.S.–South Korea joint military exercises

May 3–7 – Golden Week (domestic)
May 9 – South Korean presidential election

Around these dates, especially during Golden Week, the market has historically shown significant volatility

and in some cases has panicked, so caution is warranted,

but no one can predict how the market will move given such tense geopolitical risks.

That being said, at the very least

if military action occurs, Japanese stocks would likely be sold and the yen would be bought.

However, this movement is unlikely to persist for long, and once the news is exhausted, it may rebound.



Even with these concerns, President Trump’s talk of a rising dollar has led to

the dollar/yen moving substantially last week.

The key support at 110 yen has broken, and the next support level is what I’d like to examine technically.

On a daily chart, the price failed to break above the cloud and ended near the 200-day moving average by the weekend.







On a weekly chart, it has also entered the Ichimoku cloud, so

there is little sign of a clear support level around 104 yen.



On a monthly chart, it has reached the upper bound of the Ichimoku cloud, but since this is a monthly chart

we won’t know until month-end whether this level will be supported.

Also, the Trump honeymoon rally’s 61.8% retracement line sits near 108 yen

and depending on how you draw the line, if you redraw from last year’s low below 100 yen,

the level could drop a bit further, but either way, it’s a key area for market attention.

Since 110 yen has been decisively broken, the long yen positions may have been closed somewhat,

but until North Korea’s issues are resolved, longs won’t re-enter in force.





In short, buying opportunities won’t be effective unless North Korea-related concerns retreat,

and the buying would come back only when the concerns ease again.

I expect big buying to come in at that timing.

If the crisis drags on, there may be further downside, but looking at monthly charts later,

we would likely see a long upper shadow indicating a rebound after a long down move.

In short, markets moved by geopolitical risk tend to rebound strongly, and

once we catch the timing of retreating risk, this market could lead to profits.

The Nikkei stock average is expected to follow a similar pattern.




★ Special seven-point set with exclusive Tokyo market trading techniques!
Achieve ultimate trading with Full Saint Trade!
Ask_Ultimate_Kagemusha/MAX – Trend-following and contrarian mastery seven-point set

★ Now! USD/JPY is hot! Limited-time campaign left!
Prepared for traders who deeply love USD/JPY! The strongest version!
Ask ver1.0 / Ask_Ultimate MAX / Ask_Ultimate Kagemusha – USD/JPY edition with bonus nine-point set!

★ Get Ultimater as a present now!
The strongest version of the Ask series!
Ask ver1.0 / Ask_Ultimate MAX – Premium eight-point set!

★ The sub-indicators shown during chart upswings are this!
With this, you can grasp the market flow!
Ask_Ultimater by “Kawaseri-gui”


★ We update our blog daily.
Forex Baka Juku – The FX Strategy Blog by the headmaster “Kawaseri-gui”