Will the yen depreciation continue!? "February 24 Week Highlights and Event Schedule"
Last week, a surprise yen depreciation pushed the USD/JPY from the upper 109s to the 112s in one stride.
As the USD/JPY, which had been lacking in volatility for a long time, surged, attention on USD/JPY increased.
According to reports, even in this situation, there are still many who view USD/JPY as a short position.
If there are still many short positions, the speed of a short-squeeze rally may continue.
◎ This Week's Points of Focus
1) COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
The impact of the spread of COVID-19 is expanding.
One of the supply chains, the Chinese supply network for components, is not functioning, leading to situations where finished products cannot be produced in neighboring countries.
There are reports that the infection rate has slowed down.
This week as well, attention will be on COVID-19 and its effects.
2) Japanese stocks and the yen depreciation
Last week, as Japanese stocks fell, the yen depreciated, causing a breakdown in correlation.
There are various factors behind the yen depreciation, but the worst-case scenario is continued stock price declines and yen depreciation.
Whether stock prices will continue to fall or the yen will continue to weaken is something to watch this week.
For other impacts, please refer to the video below as I discuss them↓↓↓
3) Key remarks by officials
With the FOMC on March 19 approaching and considering a two-week blackout period, the statements of FOMC members this week and next are of interest.
Also, while a March rate cut is anticipated, remarks by UK MPC members, and remarks by UK and EU officials regarding Brexit-era FTAs, are drawing attention as well.
◎ This Week's Economic Calendar
February 24 (Monday)
Tokyo market closed (Emperor's Birthday)
06:45 NZDNZ quarterly retail sales
18:00 EUR Germany IFO business climate index
February 25 (Tuesday)
03:30 GBPHolden BOE external member speech
05:00 USDMester, President of the Cleveland Fed, speech (voting rights in 2020 and 2022)
16:00 EURGermany GDP
21:00 MXN Mexico GDP
23:00 USD U.S. housing price index
23:45 USDKaplan, Dallas Fed president, speech (voting rights in 2020)
February 26 (Wednesday)
00:00 USD U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
02:15 CADLane, BoC official speech
05:00 USDLael Brainard, Fed Vice Chair, speech
22:30 EURLagarde, ECB President, speech
23:35 USDKaplan, Dallas Fed president, speech (voting rights in 2020)
February 27 (Thursday)
00:00 USD U.S. new home sales
00:30 USD crude oil inventories
03:00 USD U.S. 5-year note auction
06:45 NZD NZ trade balance
09:00 NZD NBNZ business confidence
10:30 JPY Kadoka Bank of Japan board member remarks
14:00 JPY Amamiya Bank of Japan deputy governor remarks
19:00 EUR Eurozone consumer confidence index
19:30 GBPCankreth BOE deputy governor remarks
22:30 USDU.S. GDP・ durable goods orders
February 28 (Friday)
00:00 USD U.S. existing home sales pending
00:00 MXN Mexico monetary policy decision minutes
01:00 EURDe Guindos, ECB Vice President, remarks
01:30 USD Evans, President of the Chicago Fed, speech (voting rights in 2021)
03:00 USD U.S. 7-year note auction
05:30 USDMester, Cleveland Fed president, speech (voting rights in 2020 and 2022)
16:45 EUR France HICP (flash) and GDP
17:30 SEK Sweden GDP
17:55 EURGermany unemployment rate
19:00 EUR Italy HICP (consumer price index)
19:00 EUR Weidmann, Germany Bundesbank President, remarks
20:15 GBPHolden BOE external director remarks
22:00 EUR Germany HICP (flash) index
22:30 USD U.S. PCE deflator
22:30 CADCanada GDP
23:15 USD Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, remarks (voting rights in 2022)
February 29 (Saturday)
00:00 USD University of Michigan consumer sentiment
01:15 GBPCanary BOE deputy governor remarks
03:00 USD Baker Hughes rig count
10:00 CNY China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
