Will Apple's stock fall again today after lowering its sales guidance? "February 18 Focus Points and Event Schedule"
Yesterday, Japan's GDP (gross domestic product) significantly underperformed expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.6% and a year-on-year decline of 6.3%, the largest drop since 2014.
These figures are for October to December and are the numbers when COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) had not yet affected them.
The decline is due to reduced consumption caused by the consumption tax increase and a decrease in corporate capital investment.
When COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) impacts are added to this situation, some are predicting effects comparable to the Lehman Brothers shock era.
Additionally, Apple announced early this morning that it would revise its sales outlook.
In addition to yesterday's GDP release, Apple’s announcement is expected to lead to further declines in stock prices today.
◎ Today's Focus
1) COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
Apple announced this early morning that it would be difficult to raise its forecasted sales.
Citing the impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) on sales and supply chain disruptions that prevent finished products from being completed, Apple stated that it would not meet its previously announced sales forecast from the latest earnings report.
The USD/JPY fell about 10 pips, but questions remain about how much this will affect stock prices in Tokyo, how U.S. markets will react after the holidays, and the extent of the impact on currency when the stock market truly declines.
The United States has shown strong stock price momentum, and even after lower interest rates, stock prices supported a stronger dollar.
It will be interesting to see how far the dollar can be supported when stock prices drop.
2) RBA Board Meeting Minutes
Recently the policy rate was kept unchanged, and while the statement and press conference did not deny the possibility of a cut, they referenced risks of very low rates, suggesting no aggressive cuts are likely.
With no aggressive rate cuts, the Australian dollar has been recouped for now.
Today, the minutes of that meeting will be released.
If the details are known, the AUD could move significantly.
I will pay close attention to the contents of the minutes, especially the risks of low rates, future rate cuts, and policy decision points.
3) UK Employment Statistics
Employment statistics will be released in the United Kingdom today.
They should be watched in conjunction with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) released later.
Employment, CPI, and GDP are the most closely watched indicators for monetary policy decisions.
Particularly in the UK, the relationship between average wages and CPI is of note.
In a context where prices are rising due to the weakening pound and Brexit, it is important to see whether wages are catching up with the rise in prices.
Eyes are on the UK economic indicators from today.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
Tuesday, February 18
EU Finance Ministers Meeting
09:30 AUDFebruary RBA Board Minutes
17:30 SEK Sweden Unemployment Rate
18:30 GBPUK Employment Statistics, Unemployment Rate, Average Wages
19:00 EUR Germany and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
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