Everyone thinks the same thing, loses in the same way, and has come to the present moment like that, huh～(・_・;) - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

We received questions from readers, so this time here is the answer.

By the way, this reader opened an account through my introduction and, after meeting the conditions of the new account opening campaign conducted by IG Securities, also satisfied the referral campaign conditions—what a tremendous reader o(^▽^)o　The reader earns double rewards, and I also earn a referral reward, making it a true WIN-WIN relationship.

Since it’s from such a person, I’ll do my best to answer without holding back.

…But before that, a quick PR

Even I’ve achieved over 1 million yen in profit while remaining undefeated ♪ That’s BRL/JPY (Brazilian Real) trading at a single company! An invincible account has been completed
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
※ There are campaign rewards for introducing Brazilian Real
As expected, in this risk-off environment the BRL has also fallen, but once the North Korea issue is resolved, it could become a currency to aim for profit-taking with very high swap interest.

I know you’re busy, but I’d like to ask for your opinion.

This is my fourth year in FX.

Somehow I want to win easily, so in the first and second years I did things like Sterlite 24 and lost big.

In the third year I reflected a bit, and did lose a little, after all.

Also, I started interbank Turkish Lira arbitrage between brokers.

In the fourth year, Hibose’s swap decreased and profits plummeted. It’s been left alone.

Rather than complicated systems, I began discretionary trading to manage things myself.

Performance isn’t great...

So what I’m curious about are methods called Trawlilipe or iLoop, basically systems that try to accumulate profits mechanically without much loss-cutting.

What do you think of them? (How do you view them?)

Personally, if the market could stay in a range and go up and down consistently, I’d be happy to profit, but if the market moves in the opposite direction, you end up with a full set of positions and a huge drawdown.

If you then cut losses, you could incur enormous losses.

If you have vast funds, no matter how the positions move, they will generally ebb and flow, so periodic profit-taking should increase profits, right? However, considering drawdowns, it’s scary to think about how large they could be...

From demo accounts on Foreign Exchange Online, so far profits have been steadily increasing.

Position counts are small, and right now profits exceed drawdowns.

Is this a method that should be used on currencies with lots of swaps?

However, when considering swaps, it tends to be a buy, and (vs JPY)

If the Turkish Lira were to decline neatly like this, it would be unbearable to watch.

So, what do you think?

I started with systems because I couldn’t win by myself, but the systems were so bad that I withdrew.
I once joined an early FXCM system, but the strategies were really poor, and I thought it would be better to leave trading to random chance.

In a sense, this reader also wrote,“I did things like Sterlite 24 and lost big.”So the strategies apparently haven’t evolved much, have they...

Next, he started interbank arbitrage. Hmm, the manager has done this too.
Interbank arbitrage pairs that are easy for anyone to try do not last long, right?
Turkish lira swaps were high at Hibose, but cross-yen swaps are watched by many, so challengers are naturally numerous.
Hibose only receives swap around 7-8 JPY, while customers are paid 115 yen; the difference is Hibose’s own loss.
Moreover, those who aimed for interbank arbitrage often hold positions without ever closing them, so the company does not make profits from the spread, and yet must continue paying the swap; it becomes loss-making, and since cross-yen pairs are easy to understand, everyone does it...

That’s why it can’t go on forever.

It’s obviously easy to think of selling ZAR/JPY on DMM FX and going long, so brokers will implement regular periods to raise swaps and make life difficult for those who do hedges

If you’re doing cross-yen interbank arbitrage, you need to be ready to exit at any time...

Therefore, those who have done it a long time sometimes used currencies like EUR/NZD for hedging when brokers paid little attention to it, with few challengers. Ultimately, Nemukon long ago did GBP/AUD long—the strategy of selling AUD and buying GBP with zero swap (no negative swap) from a broker for hedging—but now there don’t seem to be such favorable brokers, and even with less profitable currency pairs, the swap differences between brokers appear to have narrowed.

…and now to the main topic,It’s getting long, so to be continued next time

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