Is the U.S. and Canada markets closed, making for a quiet trading session!? “Points of interest on February 17 and the events schedule”
Today, with Canada and the United States closed, the market is expected to be quiet.
To confirm the direction at the start of the week, I feel that active trading may not occur.
Also, the first phase of the US-China agreement has started since the end of last week.
We will be watching whether China can fulfill the agreed contents.
Additionally, we are paying attention to how far repatriation gains from US Treasury redemptions will emerge, and how far the US will tolerate a stronger dollar given the dollar's appreciation, as both are factors that could push the dollar lower.
◎ Today's Points of Interest
1) COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
Today, Japan will announce its GDP, but there are no other highly watched economic indicators.
Therefore, COVID-19 is likely to be the material factor watched.
What to pay attention to is how far China's additional stimulus measures can support stock prices and whether the infection spread can be contained.
The Chinese government has announced additional stimulus measures, but economic deterioration is also expanding because infections are causing disruptions to distribution, transportation, and production within the country.
We will see which outweighs: stimulus measures or economic deterioration.
In addition to COVID-19, China is also facing swine fever and avian influenza, so we are paying attention to those as well.
Regarding the spread of infection, we are watching how far the global number of cases will expand, including in China, and whether the spread will slow down.
Also, we will watch whether a third wave of domestic infections increases.
If domestic infections rise, and Japan becomes seen as a dangerous country from abroad, travel bans could be imposed, leading to a sharp drop in tourists and the inability to procure parts, which would hinder the assembly of finished products and significantly impact the Japanese economy.
Domestic infection expansion requires careful attention as well.
2) Eurogroup Finance Ministers' meeting
Europe is also feeling the impact of COVID-19.
Concerns about political risks and recession risks have led to a sharp sell-off of the euro.
Today and tomorrow there is a two-day Eurogroup and EU finance ministers meeting, and we are watching what will come out of it.
Today, the US and Canada are on holiday, so the European market in the latter half of the day is likely to be quieter than usual.
In that environment, if there are important announcements, there is a possibility of big moves, so please be careful.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
February 17 (Monday)
US and Canada holiday
Eurogroup Finance Ministers' Meeting
08:50 JPY Domestic Product - GDP
23:00 EUR Lane ECB Executive Board member speaking
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