The First Phase Agreement Content of the U.S.-China Talks Begins! "February 14 Highlights and Event Schedule"
Yesterday, the sudden resignation of the Japanese Finance Minister and the nomination of a successor have caused the pound to swing wildly.
With the eurozone economy slowing and political uncertainty ongoing, euro selling continues, driving the euro to multi-year lows against the dollar and the franc.
Today, the first phase of the US-China agreement will be issued.
The Chinese side has been urging a reduction in import quotas due to the impact of the novel coronavirus, but it is doubtful whether the United States will accept this.
There is heightened attention on whether China can truly fulfill the terms of the agreement.
If it cannot be fulfilled, the risk of renewed US-China frictions will arise, which is a concern.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) European Indicators and European Politics
Today, GDP data for the euro area and Germany will be released.
Because it is for the October-December quarter, this data is before any effects from Middle East risks or COVID-19.
If this data comes in below expectations, economic uncertainty after January may increase, potentially accelerating euro selling, so keep an eye on it.
Additionally, with Chancellor Merkel’s expected successor Klamp-Karrenbauer resigning, German politics become unstable, and President Macron’s popularity in France is also declining.
I will be watching indicators and headlines closely.
2) Weekend Risks
Today is effectively the fifty-day, and it is the weekend.
Also, since the weekend falls under the 45-day rule, today’s stock market is in focus.
With COVID-19 infection spreading and risks increasing, there is concern about a greater economic hit.
Additionally, Middle East risks have not completely disappeared.
In yesterday’s European and American markets, stocks were somewhat soft, and the trend may continue today.
There is a possibility of a gap at the start of the week, so be cautious with position adjustments and risk management.
◎ Today's Economic Event Schedule
February 14 (Friday)
16:00 EUR Germany GDP
17:00 EUR Spain HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices)
19:00 EUR Euro Area GDP
19:00 JPY Amamiya, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, speaks
22:30 USD United States Retail Sales
23:15 USD US Industrial Production
February 15 (Saturday)
00:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
01:45 USD Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, speaks (2020 and 2022 voting rights)
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
