Dollar/Yen Market Analysis & Swing Settings
Thank you for your hard work.
This is Nobushi.
Recently on Twitter, it feels like there is a scene of utter carnage due to the euro's decline...
Markets that are easy for traders to exit include
① a trend in one direction (today's trend)
and
② a range-bound market for a long period (long-term range)
This are mentioned.
Regarding ①, the cause is that price moves too one-sidedly, making it impossible to cut losses, causing losses to swell and preventing action. If you follow pre-set rules, you may incur losses temporarily, but you can limit losses and prevent opportunity loss, allowing you to ride the trend waves.
Regarding ②, for traders who are conscious of trend-following, attractive entry opportunities often do not come (or signals do not appear at all), so you either limit losses or get caught in a double loss from being deceived.
The former is using tools with fewer deceits, so no problem! Still, no tool is completely immune to deception, so in range markets you should modestly cut losses. There is no endless range, as the song lyrics say.
On the other hand, the latter requires very careful attention. If you keep getting deceived, either the tool you are using is bad or the logic has flaws. Or you may have blamed a few deceives and tried this and that, leading to more losses.
Do not rely solely on tools; recognize that the current market is in a range.
With that recognition, you must use tools only as an aid.
To avoid both ① and ②, what is common is
to consistently adhere to an unwavering rule
to cut losses (consistent small losses prevent exit; exits always come via a loss cut)
Now, let's proceed to the USD/JPY analysis!
Daily chart
From a long-term perspective, the question is whether the Winner value will extend to the recent high or whether the slope of the Winner line will turn negative first.
The chart shows a slight heaviness at the top.
Whether this is the limit of upside or if it will break through is known only to the market.
Results are expected next week, but personally I think it would be easier to go in as a swing position if the slope of the Winner line turns negative and drops.
Until then, we have to make steady gains with day trading!
Now, the GBP/JPY position I entered recently has been developing as expected with unrealized gains!
There might be a slight pullback, but my perspective is long-term, so I will hold it to a reasonable level.
By the way, I entered the chart at this point.
There is only one reason.
Because the slope of the winning line turned.
It's very simple, but people who win always trade simply, right?
Only 2–3 indicators are enough!
Winner has three indicators embedded, so that's enough to go with.
Incidentally, the Swing Winner settings are the same as the day-trading ones!
If you are a Winner user, please try it out!
Winner Introduction video： https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/15/17609
Original Indicator “Winner” Public Page：https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/17623
