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04/12/2017 19:24
Release： 04/12/2017 19:24
Update： 04/08/2021 02:35
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Nikkei 225 index Fujitomi
Nikkei stock average extends gains; range-bound after SQ https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=13630 With caution ahead of the U.S. employment report, the U.S. stock market edged higher. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.07% at 2364.87, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.46 points (+0.01%) to 20858.19. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose briefly to about 2.60%, its highest in nearly three months. In spite of this, buying in financial shares supported the market. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil futures hit a roughly three-month low, triggering selling in the oil sector and weighing on the market’s upside. NYMEX WTI futures for April finished at 49.28 dollars per barrel, down 1.00 dollar (1.99%). Domestic inventory concerns and vigilance over shale oil expansion plans bred bearish sentiment. In the U.S. FX market, the rise in U.S. interest rates led to a stronger dollar and weaker yen. By the close, the yen briefly touched around 115.00 per dollar, the lowest in about one and a half months since January 30. With expectations that the FOMC will hike rates next week on the 14th-15th, traders speculate that the pace of future rate hikes could be faster than previously anticipated. The ECB kept policy unchanged at its latest meeting. Draghi’s press conference was not as dovish as markets had expected, supporting euro-buying against major currencies. Stock index futures and options for the March contract, as the special quotation (SQ) date approaches, are expected to extend gains on the yen’s weakness. With the calendar shift for futures, from today the Nikkei 225 futures will trade below the Nikkei Stock Average by about 130 yen due to the March ex-dividend. After the SQ, with attention to the currency market, markets may become range-bound, but the dollar/yen at around 115 could allow further upside. In the U.S., the February employment data will be released. Next week, the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 【Buying factors】 ・Expectations of benefits from the Trump administration’s “growth-oriented policy” ・Expectations for Trump’s policies ・U.S. stock market modestly higher; energy shares rebound ・Dow Jones up (20858.19, +2.46) ・Nasdaq up (5838.81, +1.26) ・CME 225 futures higher than Osaka Exchange, close at 19290 (June contract) ・Fed Chair hints at March rate hike ・Forex: dollar-yen around 115.00-05 【Selling factors】 ・Oil futures further decline; U.S. WTI below 50 dollars for first time since December (49.28, -1.00) ・European stock markets slide with oil weakness ・Fear gauge VIX at 12.30, up from the previous day ・Concerns about Europe’s political situation ・Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election ・Uncertainty over EU national elections ・North Korea geopolitical risk ・Greece debt crisis resurging 【Other points to watch】 ・Major SQ calculation date ・EU leaders’ summit (Brussels, final day) ・Dollar weakens against euro, ECB President remarks; NY market ・U.S. bonds continue to fall; yields rise on expectations of more rate hikes; focus on employment data ・COMEX gold futures fall on expectations of U.S. rate hikes and a stronger dollar ・ECB keeps policy rate at 0.00% ・ECB keeps deposit facility rate at -0.40% ・New U.S. immigration order faced another injunction in Washington state ・U.S. to hold a meeting of 68 countries on the 22-23 to accelerate IS elimination ・U.S. Treasury Secretary requests early debt ceiling increase from Congress ・U.S. Fed buys $7.8 billion in government-sponsored MBS — NY Fed ・IMF Deputy Director warns that if France exits the euro, it would face severe poverty — local paper 《Schedule》 08:50 1Q and 3Q corporate sentiment survey 09:30 January Australian housing loans 16:00 February German PPI (WPI) 16:00 January German trade balance 16:00 January German current account 16:45 January French industrial production index 18:30 January UK industrial production index Manufacturing output 18:30 January UK trade balance 22:30 February U.S. employment data 22:30 February Canadian employment data 04:00 11th February U.S. monthly treasury balance We would appreciate if you could refer to Twitter for market updates. https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740
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【Fujitomi】Nikkei average continues to fall? Watch for remarks by the U.S. president restraining dollar strength and North Korea's important event remarks

The U.S. stock market continued to slip. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.37% from the previous day at 2344.93, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 59.44 points (0.28%) at 20591.86. With geopolitical risks such as Syria and North Korea in mind, the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average for the first time since November 8 last year when the U.S. presidential election was held. Meanwhile, President Trump left open the possibility of renominating Fed Chair Janet Yellen. In an interview with WSJ, Trump said that a low interest-rate policy is desirable and that he has a favorable view of Chair Yellen. The president stated that the United States would not designate China as a currency manipulator and noted that the dollar has become too strong. He also said that relations with Russia have worsened like never before.

In the New York forex market, the dollar fell sharply amid concerns about geopolitical risks. This came in response to President Trump's comments that the dollar is too strong.

NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for May ended down 29 cents (0.5%) at $53.11 per barrel. Following the EIA weekly petroleum status report, the price declined for the first time in seven trading days.

Today’s Nikkei average is expected to open with a predominance of selling. Markets are cautious about Trump’s renewed comments suggesting a strong-dollar policy and about North Korea officials telling foreign reporters in the country to prepare for a “large-scale and important event.”

https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14426


【Positive factors】


• Expectation of ETF purchases by the Bank of Japan to support supply and demand

• Strong demand from individuals for defense-related stocks


【Negative factors】


• North Korea notifying foreign journalists to prepare for a “large-scale and important event”

• Decline in U.S. stocks and geopolitical risks; S&P Composite breaks technical support

• Dow Jones declines (20591.86, -59.44)

• Dollar declines on Trump’s “too strong” remarks — New York forex market

• Putin: under Trump administration relations have worsened; unusually stern stance

• London equity market falls, Tesco pressured by earnings disappointment

• NY Crude futures decline — price adjustment after inventory data (53.40, -0.29)

• VIX fear index at 15.77, up from the previous day

• CME 225 futures down versus Osaka Exchange (18,470, -60)

• Trump administration presents policy execution as opaque

• North Korea geopolitical risk

• Greek debt crisis reignites

• Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election


【Other points to watch】


• U.S. bond market shortened trading


• U.S. bond market yields fall on Trump remarks favoring “low interest rate policy”

• European stock markets mixed; geopolitical risks weigh on gains

• European bonds rise further amid concerns over Syria and North Korea

• NY gold futures extend gains as North Korea sends an ominous message and risk aversion rises


• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report as of 2017/04/07

Crude oil: -2.166 million barrels (week prior +1.566 million barrels)

Gasoline: -2.973 million barrels (week prior -0.618 million barrels)

Middle distillates (including heating oil): -2.153 million barrels (week prior -0.536 million barrels)

Crude oil delivery point: Cushing, Oklahoma

+0.276 million barrels (week prior +1.413 million barrels)


• Trump: U.S.-Russia relations worse than ever

• Putin: “Since Trump took office, relations between the two countries have deteriorated”

• U.S. prepared to act on North Korea without Chinese cooperation if necessary — Trump

• U.S. FX policy report likely will not designate China as a currency manipulator

• Trump opposes the name “border-adjustment tax,” says it should reflect mutual taxation

• Tax reform not as difficult as healthcare reform — Trump

• Security Council resolution condemning Syria vetoed by Russia; China abstained

• IMF managing director: Greece aid talks are “halfway”

• In the French presidential election, polls suggest Macron will defeat Le Pen in the runoff

• Explosion in Dortmund, Germany; possible Islamist extremist act — investigators

• Bank of Canada holds rate; timing uncertain on whether growth is sustainable

• Brazil’s central bank cuts by 100 bps to stimulate the economy

• U.S. United Airlines faces intensified criticism


《Schedule》


08:50 Foreign securities transactions (weekly, report-based)

08:50 March Money Stock M2

11:00 Tokyo central office vacancy rate (March) 3.7

16:30 Greeley OECD Secretary-General to present the 2017 Economic Survey of Japan


08:01 March UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing prices

09:00 Q1 2017 Singapore GDP flash estimate

09:00 Singapore MAS monetary policy announcement

TBD Korea central bank policy rate announcement

10:30 March Australian employment statistics

TBD March China trade balance

15:00 March German CPI (final)

15:45 March French CPI revisions

16:15 March Swiss producer import prices

19:45 JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

21:00 Citigroup Q1 earnings

21:00 Wells Fargo Q1 earnings

21:30 March Canada new housing price index

21:30 March Canada manufacturing shipments

21:30 March U.S. wholesale inventories

Core index excluding food and energy

21:30 Previous week's U.S. initial jobless claims

23:00 April U.S. consumer sentiment index



For market updates, please refer to Twitter. https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740

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■ Important Matters and Risk Warnings Regarding Investment Products 【Financial Instruments Business Operator】
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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