U.S. and Canada Employment Statistics Release! "February 7 Highlights and Event Schedule"
Yesterday, stock prices were steady, and risk-off seems to have retreated completely.
The novel coronavirus仍 continues to spread among infected people, but I think the market has somewhat priced it in.
The next risk is how stock prices will react when companies revise their earnings outlook due to the virus's impact, supply chain disruptions, and other effects.
Other risks include negotiations on a UK-EU FTA, the Ireland elections, and tensions in the Middle East and North Korea remain.
Since it is the weekend, I want to be careful about carrying positions overnight.
◎ Today's Highlights
1) Employment Data
US employment data are scheduled for release today.
Following the ADP employment report's results that significantly exceeded expectations, there is growing anticipation for the official Non-Farm Payrolls data today.
However, in recent employment data, the number of jobs has tended to be around 200,000, so the focus is shifting to average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate.
In particular, when the economy shifts from boom to recession, the unemployment rate tends to react, so the unemployment rate is in focus.
Also, the Canada employment data released simultaneously are noteworthy.
The Bank of Canada is currently neutral, but with a dove policy and a neutral stance, weak data could revive expectations for a rate cut, which would have a large impact on the foreign exchange market.
It may move more than the US employment data, so pay attention.
If the results of US employment and Canadian employment diverge from expectations, the USD/CAD currency pair will move the most.
I am watching USD/CAD.
2) Risk Factors and Adjustments
The spread of the novel coronavirus has slowed, but the number of infections continues to rise.
Positive factors include that outside China, numbers of deaths and serious cases have not spread widely, and reports suggest progress toward a specific remedy exists.
Negative factors include continued chaos in China and delays in business operations of companies, factories, and stores, and as a result, supply of parts and product shipments are being affected overseas.
Globally, risk-off-driven declines have reversed, and US stocks are reaching new highs.
As it is the weekend, there is a possibility of position adjustments due to weekend risk management, so caution is advised.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
February 7 (Friday)
US presidential election and a Democratic primary debate
07:30 AUDRBA Governor Lowe speech (semiannual testimony to Parliament)
09:15 USDFOMC Vice Chair Quarles speech
09:30 AUDRBA Quarterly Monetary Statement
Around 12:00 CNY China trade balance
16:00 EUR Germany current account and trade balance
16:00 NOK Norway GDP
16:45 EUR France current account and trade balance
17:30 GBP Halifax house price index
21:00 MXN Mexico CPI (consumer price index)
22:30 USDNFP Employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
22:30 CADCanada employment and unemployment rate
February 8 (Saturday)
Ireland General Election
00:00 CAD Ivey PMI
01:00 USDFOMC Monetary Policy Report release (semiannual)
03:00 USD Baker Hughes rig count
