Winning methods and losing methods
Thank you for your hard work.
This is Nobushi.
This week the market moved a lot over the weekend.
In particular, it seemed the market was being driven by the EU withdrawal news.
As for me, I ended up no trading yesterday due to a dinner gathering.
I have also published on Twitter, but here are this month's gains and losses.
January had fewer trades at the start of the month because it was the New Year.
However, thanks to the Winner signals, I think I generally entered at points with high expected value.
Towards the end the market became unsettled and I had a stop-out...
By cutting decisively, I think I was able to protect the profits secured early in the month.
For February, my goal is to increase the gains and ride the waves with more trades.
Specifically, after entering on Winner's 2-wave signal, I plan to constantly be mindful of highs and lows and increase the number of positions at points that look like they’ll run.
We need to continuously assess whether the current situation is favorable or unfavorable for us.
If favorable, we go on the offensive. If unfavorable, we retreat.
I plan to stick with the simplest trading principle: simple trades are the strongest.
This is the USD/JPY 15-minute chart.
Over the weekend, the 2-wave signal did not light up.
It was such a one-sided move.
There might have been entry points with a bit of retracement, but...
On the 15-minute chart I couldn't enter, but the daily chart I mentioned last week is becoming interesting.
As predicted last week, the USD/JPY Winner value has fallen to the target area for a pullback.
From here, whether it reverses and rises, or breaks this line further, I think this is a turning point that will determine the long-term perspective for USD/JPY.
There is no need to predict which way it will turn; I just want to ride whichever direction it moves.
The best-case scenario would be to buy USD/JPY on a swing around here,
and if it continues rising with this pullback as a base, it could be a huge profit opportunity.
Conversely, if the Winner value drops below 35, the downside risk would rise sharply, so at that time I would take a bearish stance.
In any case, I feel there will be a big move soon...
Last February was a terrible range, after all...
We’ll have to see what happens this year!!
In this article I discuss the topic of “winning methods vs. losing methods.”
Recently, when Winner spreads on Twitter, I’ve been getting a lot of DMs from people...
That in itself is very pleasing, but among them, the most common messages are
“Teach me the method”
“I want you to make me your student”
which keep coming in.
These are flattering, but I must decline all of them as things stand.
The reason is that many of these people have tried to find a method themselves but couldn’t arrive at a winning one.
And when asked in detail, they have tried many methods and kept changing them.
And the period they have tested is only about a month...
There has never been anyone who has tested for more than a year.
By the way, with short-term testing results, you can’t absolutely determine “winning or losing.”
Whether it’s a winning or losing method is unclear, but at least please test for that long before discussing it...
Teach discretionary trading!
Make me your disciple!
That would be perfectly fine.
However, you must trade my method for at least two years.
During that time your discretion will develop.
You probably know that it’s not a realm you can reach in a day or two.
First, study with Winner for at least one month.
That’s where the discussion begins.
That’s my answer. Haha.
There are quite a few “winning” methods out there.
When I say winning, I mean with high expected value.
Even with high expected value, losses can accumulate over a few months, so...
If you judge a method as non-winning just from those moments, you’ll be misled...
If you’re looking for a winning method, I understand the urge, but please spend at least 1–2 years with one method!
There will be periods of wins and periods of losses.
When losses come, you’ll learn how to reduce them; when it’s a winning period, you’ll learn to push forward boldly.
This is what Nobushi repeatedly emphasizes through experience.
In the end, until you experience it, you won’t truly internalize it as a person.
The reason you can’t find a winning method isn’t that the method is bad, but that your method evaluation method (mainly the testing period) is poor, or you lack the time and funds to spend on finding a method.
If that’s impossible, it might be better to make money in another way than FX...
A salaryman can definitely earn money by working, you know ^^!
Recommended!
If you’re willing to try, study one method and master its indicators.
One year later you’ll understand the true value of that method (for better or worse) and you’ll have gained an irreplaceable discretion power.
I don’t recommend frequently changing methods or indicators…
It would be great to grow with a long-term perspective!
Winner Intro Video: https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/15/17609
Original Indicator “Winner” Public Page:https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/17623
