Today, we focus on three risk factors as well! “January 28 highlights and event schedule”
Yesterday, global risk-off has been advancing, compounded by factors including the risk-off from the Baghdad U.S. Embassy bombardment in addition to the risk-off from the coronavirus.
Concerns grow that travel and other activities will be restricted, leading to a drop in consumption, with stock prices falling globally and crude oil prices also declining.
As risk-off progresses, the U.S. dollar, yen, and franc are being bought, while the Australian dollar is being sold.
Today, more attention is likely to be paid to risk factors than to economic indicators.
◎ Today’s Points of Attention
1) Coronavirus
Last day, there was no sign of a slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus, and infections in China continue to rise.
Regarding reports of infections in China, information appears to be tightly controlled, and it is unclear how trustworthy they are, but reports indicate over 5,000 people may be infected when including those with suspected infection.
If, for example, about 5,000 people are all infected, that would exceed the SARS outbreak.
Attention is focused on the reporting of infections, and risk-off may persist until the number of infections peaks.
Additionally, it is worth watching whether infected people traveling worldwide are spreading the infection to various regions.
In the United States, infections did not seem to increase yesterday, so there is also attention on whether infections worldwide will stop rising.
2) Trump Impeachment Trial
President Trump’s impeachment trial has begun, and former national security adviser John Bolton may be summoned to testify.
Bolton, who was a close aide to President Trump, will attract attention to see what statements come out if he is summoned to testify.
Bolton has previously fallen out with Trump and published a book, fueling expectations that he might reveal new information.
Whether Bolton is summoned, and what he says if summoned, may act as a drag on the dollar until this becomes clearer.
3) Middle East Risk
The risk in the Middle East has resurfaced after the U.S. embassy was bombarded yesterday.
Additionally, the Islamic State has called for attacks against Israel.
With potential for armed conflict involving Iran, ISIS, and others, headlines require caution.
◎ Today’s Economic Event Schedule
Tuesday, January 28
09:30 AUD NAB business confidence index
17:30 SEK Sweden retail sales
22:30 USD U.S. durable goods orders
Wednesday, January 29
00:00 USD U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
08:50 JPY Main opinions at the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
09:30 AUD Australia CPI (Consumer Price Index)
