"Not an obsession with a 100% win rate, but a relentless pursuit of a 56% expectation"
Thank you for your hard work!
This is Nobushi.
Cold days have been continuing. How is everyone’s health?
The news has been full of topics about the new coronavirus,
and I keep thinking about how it will affect the charts in the future... haha
It seems there is no choice but to protect oneself... let's be careful.
By the way, we conducted anotherドル円 test this weekend.
Dollar/Yen 15M chart
The Winner 2 wave that appeared at the end of last week unfortunately hit the stop loss, didn’t it?
However, when the signal appeared, both the hourly and daily charts were pointing up.
Email notification↓
There was clearly room for an upward move, and we found an edge there,
so I think it was a timing to take a trade.
Rather than saying I’m okay with losing, it felt like if I didn’t enter here I’d be branded a bad trader... that was about the timing.
As I wrote in the previous article,
instead of trading the same way every time, it is important for a trader to stay alive by trading at the right timing (in high-expected-value situations) with proper risk management and increasing position size to ride profits.
In other words, there is no other path.
“Not obsessing over 100% win rate, but obsessing over 56% expected value”
Yes!
If you trade every time with an expected value of 50 or higher, you won’t end up negative in the long run.
In theory. Haha
However, I cannot overlook that it went against such a high edge in this instance.
I feel there is a strong force at work here (contradiction? distortion? divergence?).
So, whether it breaks lower or reverses higher,
I think it could be a big move.
As usual, there is no need to predict up or down every time.
Enter calmly when there is a chance in the direction of movement.
That’s all that’s needed.
Next, please look at the dollar-yen daily chart.
At the start of last week, a Winner upside signal appeared on the daily chart.
Daily signals aren’t very important, but they are a crucial indicator to confirm direction.
The bias is clearly bullish, but we must manage risk with the thought that a reversal may occur someday.
So far, daily signals tend to pull back after appearing.
Specifically, how far they pull back is参考 by looking at the sub-window Winner value.
When it pulls back to the red line in the image and then rises, it has been common recently, so
it’s good to use this as one indicator.
Conversely, if the Winner value breaks below here, the downside risk will illuminate.
I still recommend entries on the 15-minute basis, but it’s necessary to keep these higher-timeframe movements in mind!
From my sense, the daily chart is also rising, staying above the previous high, forming an uptrend,
and if it presses and then moves higher here, it seems natural.
That said, it doesn’t mean I won’t sell on the 15-minute chart.
If it’s a counter-trend to the daily chart, I’ll enter with appropriate risk controls.
“Not obsessing over 100% win rate, but obsessing over 56% expected value”
Let’s do our best next week as well!!
Winner introduction video: https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/15/17609
Original indicator “Winner” public page:https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/17623
