Davos Conference Starts! "January 21 Highlights and Event Schedule"
Yesterday, with the Davos Conference and the US markets closed, the market was thin and most currencies showed little movement.
As for the pound, it has fallen as expectations for rate cuts spread not only to January but also to March cuts predicted by some banks.
Technically supported, it has rebounded for now, but the upside remains heavy.
Statements after Brexit seem to be weighing on the upside of European currencies.
◎ Today's Highlights
1) Davos Conference
Today the World Economic Forum (Davos Conference) begins.
Under the theme “A Sustainable and United World Built by Stakeholders,” topics such as IoT, AI (Artificial Intelligence), and warming are expected to be discussed.
Regarding IoT and AI, discussions will cover not only innovation and adaptation but also the avoidance of “digital warfare (tech warfare)” including tech dominance conflicts and cyberterrorism.
Digital taxation has been a point of contention between the US and Europe, but information yesterday indicated a ceasefire between France and the United States.
As for 5G, given the US-China rivalry for dominance, attention is on what statements may emerge.
On warming and climate change, attention is drawn to confrontations between President Trump, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement, and environmental activists like Greta Thunberg.
Other than that, attention is on how countries will respond to warming measures, as well as how business leaders and companies will respond.
Because the Davos Conference brings together many state leaders and business executives, it is full of economic material.
Be mindful of statements and headlines.
2) Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
This time as well, a hold is expected, with no winds of change.
However, it is worth checking whether anything might emerge in the policy rate, statement, Outlook Report announced around noon, or in the press conference with Governor Kuroda at 15:30, that could indicate future policy shifts.
3) Stocks, Bonds, Commodities
A risk-on environment continues, with equities staying firm.
US equities are rising, and the Nikkei is being pulled higher.
If there are abnormal moves in stocks, bonds, or commodities, there could be a sharp reversal or a large correction.
I will keep an eye on movements in each market.
◎ Today's Economic Event Schedule
Tuesday, January 21
EU Finance Ministers’ Meeting
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos Conference) (through the 24th)
Around 12:00 — JPY Policy Rate and Statement Release
15:30 — JPY Governor Kuroda press conference
18:30 — GBP Employment, Unemployment Rate, and Average Wages
19:00 — EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment
19:00 — EUR Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment
21:00 — MXN Mexico Unemployment Rate
Wednesday, January 22
08:30 — AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
