Many key indicators and policy rates in one week! "Points of interest and events schedule for the week of January 20"
Last week, the first phase of US-China talks was successfully signed, turning into a risk-on market, but by the weekend the risk-on sentiment faded and traders searched for a direction.
A risk-on environment is positive for resource-currency countries, and cross yen pairs moved toward yen weakness.
The franc, sold off on risk-off, entered a watchlist in the US currency report, and as Switzerland denied franc intervention, franc buying advanced.
This week, many economic indicators are scheduled and several central bank policy rate announcements are expected, so some currencies may establish a clearer direction.
I will watch for any currency pairs that begin a new trend.
◎ This Week’s Highlights
1) Policy Rate Announcements
Many policy rate announcements are planned this week.
As usual, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged and pass without incident; Governor Kuroda’s press conference is not expected to bring major changes.
Recently, the BOJ has had low market attention and minimal impact on the FX market.
It’s not a level to be particularly cautious about, but it’s worth noting as a potential turning point for the future.
The ECB Governing Council is not expected to change policy, but attention is on whether there will be any changes to policy outlook or economic outlook.
Watch the statement and Lagarde’s press conference.
The Bank of Canada policy rate is expected to remain unchanged.
Canada’s central bank has been in a neutral stance for a long time; all eyes are on whether it will remain neutral or shift toward easing policy.
Currently, it is one of the major eight central banks with the highest rates and a hawkish stance, so focus is on this.
2) Important Indicators
Many important indicators are scheduled across countries this week.
Among them, the United Kingdom draws particular attention.
With expectations of rate cuts rising in the UK, recent data have been weak.
This week, employment data and PMIs for manufacturing and services will be released.
With Super Thursday policy announcements next week, UK indicators are likely to draw more attention.
Indicators that tend to move relatively a lot include Canada CPI and Australian employment figures, as well as New Zealand quarterly CPI.
All of these can move significantly if there is a deviation between forecasts and actual results.
In particular, NZ quarterly CPI is traded in a thin liquidity window, so be careful as values can swing.
3) Davos Conference
President Trump is scheduled to participate in the global economic forum involving world leaders and business executives.
Main topics include climate change, IoT, AI, and technology wars.
Activist Greta Thunberg is also set to participate after making remarks at the United Nations.
Additionally, with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, his own theories on climate issues will be a focus of discussions with various countries.
Regarding technology wars, issues such as digital taxation with the EU and cyberterrorism are piled up for discussion.
With many leaders gathering, market attention is on what statements will be made and what headlines will emerge.
◎ This Week’s Event Schedule
Monday, January 20
Euro area Finance Ministers’ Meeting
Martin Luther King Jr. Day (US market closed)
Tuesday, January 21
EU Finance Ministers Council
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos Forum) (through the 24th)
03:30 EURLagarde ECB President speech
Around 12:00 JPYPolicy rate/ statement release
15:30 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference
18:30 GBPEmployment numbers, unemployment rate, average wages
19:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment
19:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
21:00 MXN Mexico unemployment rate
Wednesday, January 22
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos) (through the 24th)
08:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
22:30 CADCanada CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Thursday, January 23
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos) (through the 24th)
00:00 USD US Existing Home Sales
00:00 CADCanada Policy Rate/ Statement
01:15 CADPoloz BOC Governor press conference
08:50 JPY Trade Balance
09:30 AUDAustralia Employment and Unemployment
17:30 SEK Sweden Unemployment
18:00 NOKNorway Policy Rate Announcement
21:45 EURECB Governing Council, Policy Rate and Press Conference
22:30 EURLagarde ECB President press conference
Friday, January 24
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos) (through the 24th)
00:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
01:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
06:45 NZDNZ quarterly CPI (Consumer Price Index)
07:00 AUD Services & Manufacturing PMIs
08:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI
08:50 JPY BOJ Policy Meeting Minutes (Dec 19)
17:15 EUR France Manufacturing & Services & PMI
17:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing & Services & PMI
17:30 EUR Bilroth France Central Bank President remarks
18:00 EUR Italy Manufacturing & Services & PMI
18:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing & Services & PMI
18:00 EUR IFO Business Climate
18:30 GBPUK Manufacturing & Services & PMI
18:30 GBP HASSELL external BoE member remarks
18:30 EURLagarde ECB President remarks
22:30 CADCanada Retail Sales
23:45 USD US Manufacturing & Services & PMI
Saturday, January 25
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
