[Winner-style Market View] For those aiming to become discretionary traders
Thank you for your hard work.
This is Nobushi.
This week, in terms of the market, it was rather easy to read, or rather
because the trend was strong,
I think you could have traded without losing the sense of direction.
Basically, it was a market where if you entered as the signals indicated, you could have won all trades, which was good, but
the flow is likely to change a bit in the future, so I’d like to talk about it this time.
Now, first, a summary of last week.
Dollar-Yen 15-minute chart
Basically it trended upward, the USD/JPY was on an uptrend.
The second-wave signal lit up at a good point, but
after that the trend continued to the extent that I wasn’t sure where to take profits.
Personally, it is rare for a trend to continue this long, so
even if you didn’t make a large gain this time, I don’t think you need to feel pessimistic.
However, among the members there were also some who increased their positions and made massive profits,
so compared to those people, I suppose it’s natural to wish for a little more profit.
For reference, as a method of riding the profit, it is recommended to light up the third wave or update the most recent high/low.
Of course, set the stop loss as well, but since you’re already in a profitable position,
fundamentally you’d like to place a trailing stop at a slight profit level.
If you want to push, you may take a risk, but limiting risk is important.
Regarding USD/JPY, there is one point of concern about the movement after the jobs report over the weekend.
On the 15-minute chart above, at the very end a second-wave sell signal appeared.
Of course it was in the early hours, so I ignored it...
There are reports from other FX brokers that no signal appeared.
Also, since the week crosses over, it would be better not to hold positions in such cases.
With trades using Winner, basically you don’t need to read future movements,
and you don’t even need to guess.
If you simply follow the direction of the signals, that’s fine, but
some discretion is necessary at the time of exit.
Specifically, keep in mind the background of USD/JPY and
decide where to take profits or cut losses.
Whether to add to the position or to sell.
Whether to liquidate lightly, or to set a larger stop loss, etc.
In that sense, the underlying factors of USD/JPY,
and what the main theme driving movements is, need to be clarified.
Currently, the main theme is thought to be USD risk including the Middle East situation.
The center of this is President Trump’s actions,
and despite all the talk of war, USD/JPY ultimately rose.
I thought there would be strong upward pressure, but
it was pulled back to around the 109.60 level on the daily chart and closed with a bearish candle.
Personally, I feel a sense of discomfort that it closed with a bearish candle.
Also, it has recently failed twice to challenge the 109.60 level.
If this continues, it may become a bit difficult for buyers.
At this point, I still have a bullish bias, but
if next week a second-wave sell signal appears, I plan to actively follow it.
Conversely, I will approach the second-wave buy signals with caution.
Now, it took some time since last year, but the validation for Pound-Yen with Winner trades is complete, and I have obtained a basis to trade with an edge, so I’d like to report it.
Among the members, there are already those who have profited from pounds and those who have started gold trading.
I think each person has conducted their own validation, which is excellent.
Personally, I had only recommended "USD/JPY" and "EUR/USD," but
from now on, "GBP/JPY" will also be allowed.
Also, we have begun receiving more questions and reports via direct messages from many people.
Because of that, I apologize if responses are a little delayed.
But please keep sending DMs.
We also plan another update soon, so if you have any desired features, please let me know!
Winner Introduction Video: https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/15/17609
Original Indicator "Winner" Public Page: https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/17623
