Rise Ideology ~ Towards the Grand Opening Event ~

Happy New Year, and I look forward to your continued support this year as well.

I sense that many people are taking a long break this year’s year-end and New Year holidays.

Of course, I think there are also people who aren’t, but after six days of holidays, the market will have its big opening on Monday the day after tomorrow.

What kind of year will 2020 be?

Early next week, various analysts and famous figures will likely share predictions like “this is what the year will be,” but I intend to continue with a style that does not preset the future.

And while many people may reference what this year will be, it is not something to rely on, so I recommend not trusting it.

Now, the market was open for only this Monday as a business day.

As this large convening day (the grand year-end close) opened with a gap-down and entered the lower resistance band it had been approaching, this movement would be considered weak as opposed to strong.

Meanwhile, the Japanese market is closed, and watching the U.S. situation, there were moments of sharp declines in the early part of the week, but it rebounded to end the year; the Dow reached new highs, but news of U.S. airstrikes in the Middle East worsened the Middle East situation, causing the Dow to drop sharply and then narrow its loss. Regarding the Dow, it does not appear to be on a chart indicating a major influence, but CME fell sharply, and even though the decline narrowed, a sharp push at the start of next week is still anticipated.

In hindsight, the window-down day on Monday of this week made a shape that seemed to anticipate this drop. Regarding the Middle East issue, there is not yet much information, and the U.S. has announced troop increases. Whether retaliation comes from the Middle East or whether the situation becomes prolonged or resolved quickly will affect the market, but if the situation prolongs, at a time when world trade was finally starting to recover in the second half of 2019, the economic damage from reduced shipping and extreme crude oil price increases could be significant.

This area requires attention for the future.

Another aspect to watch is the U.S. IMS. A deterioration in this indicator signals real deterioration in the American economy, so it could trigger a collapse, so we should also watch beyond the Middle East issue. Chart-wise, the gap-down and crossing the 5-day moving average with a bearish candle at Monday’s move strengthens a weak impression, and at the Monday open, CME is expected to be around 23,300 yen; if December 12-13 gap is filled by a bearish candle, that would become an “island reversal.”

Furthermore, the 25-day line is expected to be penetrated, and the uptrend line joining the November 21 and December 4 lows may be broken, making the chart look more likely to push downward.

After that, whether we can maintain the line connecting the August 26 and October 10 lows is a key point. If that line is breached, a full adjustment could occur, but at this stage it does not seem there is enough material to break it; if it breaks, new factors or further deterioration in the Middle East situation would be involved.

In this flow, I am also wary of the Chinese financial state which has always been a concern.

Looking at other technical indicators, at the Monday open, the Bollinger Bands would likely indicate the end of the upward walk, with -1σ also likely to be broken, suggesting a potential downward walk; but as a standard interpretation, Bollinger indicates a box within range.

On SlowStochastic, by Monday it shows a death cross without rising, suggesting a downward move, and considering the Monday opening position, a downward trend is expected to accelerate.

As for the moving averages, unless there is a strong bullish candle on Monday, a death cross between the 5-day and 25-day lines is possible. An early-year drop (the Heisei 2 pattern) is not impossible, either. Conversely, if Monday opens with a large bullish candle and quickly fills the opening gap, and Middle East issues are resolved in the latter part of the week, that could present a good buying opportunity, so I think making conclusions right away would be unwise.

Personally, I feel more inclined to sell and hold through the year-end, so at the Monday open I will consider buying for the index. If it forms a bearish candle, I would cut losses immediately, but a small bullish candle is a familiar scenario, leaving me cautious.

I will wait and see on taking profits from short positions a bit longer.

Considering the currency market, I don’t expect large bullish candles easily, but since anything could happen, we should prepare with precise scenarios. And because Monday is the grand opening, there may be celebratory buying; however, given the year-end atmosphere, that is unlikely, so we should simulate and prepare for position adjustments when a gap-down bearish day occurs.

I have a sense that the new year could bring an interesting market.

In 2020, first, survive.

And then act decisively when opportunities arise.

As every year, how quickly we break the negative chain and reset our mindset? Finally, “controlling desire.” “It should rise further,” “if I can gain a little more, I’ll take profits,” “this loss could turn into a profit if I cut” — these whispers of desire delay our actions.

Let’s both strive not to be defeated by these whispers (things inside us) and keep improving.

I sincerely wish 2020 will be a year of great leaps for everyone.

Now, let’s welcome the grand opening with a fresh mindset.