Concerns about prolonged stalemate/long-lasting gridlock in the market

Daily chart fluctuating around the one-month average

Since the beginning of the year, the daily closing prices have continued to move around the one-month moving average (MA).

(MA) has been entering and exiting. As of 4/05 this year, 64 trading days have passed,
, and among them, 30 days closed above the one-month average,

while 34 days closed below it. This is evidence of a sideway trading range continuing.

We examined the relationship between the closing price and the one-month average.

Position relation　　　　Period　　　　Days

Daily line > 1-month line　　1/04~06　　 3 days

Daily line < 1-month line　　1/10           1 day

Daily line > 1-month line　　1/11           1 day

Daily line < 1-month line　　1/12~25    10 days

Daily line > 1-month line　　1/26~30      3 days

Daily line < 1-month line　　1/31~2/9     8 days

Daily line > 1-month line　　2/10~24     11 days

Daily line < 1-month line　　2/27~28       2 days

Daily line > 1-month line　　3/01~07       5 days

Daily line < 1-month line　　3/08~09       2 days

Daily line > 1-month line　　3/10~21       7 days

Daily line < 1-month line　　3/22~4/5     11 days

Currently, we are in a dead cross state where the daily line is below the one-month line, indicating a consolidation phase.

Since the beginning of the year, this is the longest stretch at 11 days, indicating a stronger consolidation tone.

The average over these 11 days is

Nikkei Average　　19,038 yen

Dollar/Yen　　111.03 yen

If there is no further yen strength below 110 yen, the current intraday low around 18,700 yen is regarded as near the bottom.

Conversely, unless the yen weakens beyond 113 yen, a breakout from the consolidation is not easy,

meaning that it would be difficult to push prices higher.

Going forward, moves around the medium-term line will be important.

As of 4/05, the closing price is below both the 3-month (60-day) line and the 100-day line,

indicating a shift from the ongoing interaction with the short-term line (one-month line) since the start of the year toward interaction with the medium-term line.

The short- and mid-term moving averages as of 4/05 are as follows.

5-day average　　18,925 yen

1-month average　　19,249 yen

3-month average　　19,212 yen

100-day average　　18,989 yen

Since 3/27, the 5-day line and the 3-month line have entered a dead-cross pattern, and the 5-day line and the 100-day line have also formed a dead cross on 4/05. The short-term and mid-term lines have already moved into negative territory in terms of their interaction.

The dead cross between the 1-month line and the 3-month line is also an issue, and the consolidation appears set to stretch out.

With the Bank of Japan's presence, there is little concern for a price breakdown,

but on the other hand, there is also a lack of catalysts to escape the consolidation.

Assuming the range-bound trading continues from the start of the year,

we would like to approach with that premise.