FX investment, a trader with assets worth several billion yen knew in advance that he would lose【causes and effects】
One day, I saw a trader with billions of assets on Twitter.
That person did live trading commentary on Twitter and kept saying, “Just follow me, everyone!”
They even posted images showing balances of tens of billions of yen, and many people trusted them and followed along.
For example, when that person tweeted “Buy USD/JPY,” many people jumped on it and bought USD/JPY.
This is what you would call a pump, or mirror trading.
After watching that person’s tweets and live trading commentary, I realized that they were not a winning trader at all, but a typical losing trader.
People who lose in trading do the things that lead to loss as a template.
Those who suffer massive losses or exit always do so because they are making the causes of loss.
Therefore, if someone is doing the things that cause losses, their future outcome (the result) of big losses or exit can be anticipated in advance.
If you look at the causes, you can foresee the results in advance.
The idea that the future (the result) can be known beforehand may sound odd, but there are many things in daily life that anyone can understand in advance.
For example, if you add milk to coffee, you get a café au lait.
This is something anyone can predict beforehand: if you add milk, you’ll get café au lait.
Add milk (cause) → café au lait (result).
What the billionaire trader is doing looked like this to me.
“Pour orange juice to make café au lait! Follow me!”
It’s obvious in advance that orange juice poured into coffee will not turn into café au lait.
If it turned into café au lait, that would be strange. Such a thing won’t happen.
A losing trader does this: “If that makes me win, that would be strange. Such odd things don’t happen.”
That’s what they’re doing.
Those who win win because they are supposed to.
Those who lose lose because they are supposed to.
There are causes and results that align with what is expected.
“Pour orange juice to make café au lait! Follow me!”
With this, many people believe it and start pouring orange juice into coffee.
If this continues, many people will lose.
So I decided to take the opposite position to the billion-dollar trader’s mirror.
If they say “Buy USD/JPY,” I would sell instead.
I planned to prove that not only the billionaire trader’s mirror, but the opposite position could win, by live commentary.
And I actually did a few trades and won with 100% success rate.
I did this to prevent more people from losing by following losing traders, by improving the performance aspect.
Looking back now, I don’t think this was a very good method, and I am reflecting on it.
Even after that, the followers of the billions-of-yen trader continued to grow, and many kept losing.
Pouring orange juice into coffee will not make café au lait. That’s the natural result.
▼ Interview with the charismatic trader, Richard Dennis
Q. What is the most important advice you would give to beginner traders?
A. Trade small.
Because at first, your performance is so poor that it cannot get much worse.
Do not let your daily gains and losses of your capital steer you.
Focus not on the random nature of each trade’s result, but on whether you are doing the right thing.
That’s all.
Since each trade's result is random, what matters more is whether you are doing the right thing rather than the outcome.
It’s the words of cis-san, a man who can move the Nikkei Average by himself and earned 23 billion yen.
“What matters more is whether you are conducting the process properly, rather than the result.”
Some people only show moments of big wins or profitable outcomes.
However, by looking at the content of the trades, you can tell whether they are truly winning traders.
“Are you trading correctly?”
“Are you conducting a proper battle?”
If you look at these, you will know.
To become a winning trader, you need to be able to view trading in this way.
Focus not on the random nature of each trade’s result, but on whether you are doing the right thing
What matters more is whether you can conduct a proper battle as a process rather than the result
People who end up following losing traders cannot see this perspective, so they cannot spot it.
If you see someone showing an enormous balance and think, “That’s an amazing winning trader,” then reconsider and think, “Balances alone don’t prove a real winning trader.”
If you see someone who has one massive win and think, “That’s an amazing winning trader,”
then remember, “The result of each trade is random, so that alone doesn’t prove skill or winning trader status.”
“What about the content of the trades?”
Try to judge by the content rather than the results.
That kind of discussion. Here’s a video too. ↓
Archive of past articles
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/699/11076
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