【Fujitomi】Tokyo stock market rebounds? Expectations for "dividend reinvestment"

The previous day’s U.S. stock market had a mixed performance. The Nasdaq index extended its gains (5840.374 +11.636), but the S&P 500 index ended down 0.1% from the previous Friday at 2341.59, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 0.22% lower at 20,550.98. In light of the Republicans’ withdrawal of the Obamacare replacement bill last week, concerns about the Trump administration’s ability to implement market-favored policies such as tax reform and infrastructure investment weighed on sentiment. In the U.S. bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in a month, putting pressure on bank stocks. The KBW Bank Index fell 0.4%, and Goldman Sachs was the second-largest loser in the Dow Jones average.

NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for May settled at 47.73 dollars per barrel, down 24 cents (0.50%) from the previous week’s close. The extension of coordinated production cuts led by OPEC remains uncertain, and profit-taking dominated.

Today’s stock outlook suggests a rebound despite lingering concerns about the Trump administration’s future execution ability, aided by a pause in yen strength, and the end-of-quarter dividend rights season in March. Additionally, passive investors such as domestic pensions may be buying TOPIX futures with a focus on dividend reinvestment. The Nikkei Stock Average will be calculated from tomorrow with the inclusion of ex-dividend amounts for constituent stocks, which will subtract about 130 yen from today’s closing value.

The previous day’s OSE 225 futures Night Session ended 190 yen higher at 19,000 yen compared with the previous settlement value.

https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14008

【Buy材料】

・Expectations for support from BoJ ETF purchases

・Nasdaq rose (5840.37, +11.64)

・CME 225 futures up versus Osaka Exchange (18980, +170)

・U.S. Snap up 4.8% — several IPO underwriters set investment ratings to “Buy”

【Sell材料】

・Trump administration lacks policy execution clarity

・U.S. public opinion polls show Trump’s approval at 36%

・Dow Jones down (20550.98, -45.74)

・European stock markets decline mainly in mining stocks due to perceived policy gridlock in the Trump administration

・London stock market continues to fall, selling in mining stocks and Babcock

・Dollar weak against yen and currency basket, raising questions about policy realization

・U.S. crude oil futures continue to fall, doubts remain about extending OPEC cuts, hitting monthly lows (47.73, -0.24)

・Political risk from the Moritomo Gakuen issue

・Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election

・North Korea geopolitical risk

・Greece debt crisis rekindled

【Other points】

・U.S. stock market mixed — Dow down for the eighth day, but Nasdaq Composite still rising

・NY dollar unchanged amid ongoing U.S. administration concerns; dollar selling and yen buying pause

・U.S. bond market — 10-year yield at a one-month low, concerns over Trump policy execution

・U.S. 2-year note auction: highest bid yield 1.261%, a high not seen since last December

・NY gold futures — rising again, seeking safe-haven as Trump policy stagnation concerns persist

・Zoom上市 on Tokyo Stock Exchange JASDAQ (IPO price: 1,520 yen)

・No. 1 firm newly listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange JASDAQ (IPO price: 1,570 yen)

・Trump administration to lead tax reform bill with congressional cooperation

・Germany’s finance ministry expresses concern about financial market turmoil from a hard Brexit — Handelsblatt

・With Brexit paused, UK banks asked to submit emergency response plans — Bank of England

・ECB Supervisory Board to soon decide on Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena rescue plan

《Schedule》

07:30 Kapl on, Dallas Fed President, to speak

20:00 Makhti, Slovakia Central Bank President, to speak

22:00 U.S. January Case-Shiller Home Price Index

23:00 U.S. March Consumer Confidence Index (consensus: 114.0)

23:00 U.S. March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

23:10 Poloz, Bank of Canada Governor, to speak

29th 00:30 Visco, Bank of Italy President, to speak

29th 01:45 George, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President, to speak

29th 01:50 Yellen, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, to speak

29th 02:00 U.S. Treasury to auction 5-year notes ($34 billion)

29th 05:30 Powell, FOMC member, to speak

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