Early next week, even if it is rejected by the UK Parliament, the pound is a buying opportunity — Mr. Rikio Shima
Mr. Rikio Shima, like Mr. Tetsu Emori, is also concerned about weekend carryover of positions centered on the pound.
According to Mr. Shima's remarks, even if it is rejected, Boris Johnson's Brexit withdrawal bill is likely to be adopted in the general election, so the moment it is rejected would be a buying opportunity for the pound, and the pound would rise.
Mr. Rikio Shima says that the pound/yen and other pairs are truly clear opportunities ripe for profit, and FX investors may be on the verge of a big opportunity. may be facing a major opportunity right now.
Various firms' forecasts for the UK Parliament vote
On Saturday the 19th, a parliamentary vote will decide Brexit's fate, and various firms are issuing different forecasts.
The required majority is 320, and the Conservative Party currently holds 287 seats. If 33 or more MPs from outside the Conservative Party vote in favor, the withdrawal bill will pass.
The most optimistic forecast comes from Goldman Sachs' UK economist Paul Adrian, who predicts that 30 Labour MPs will switch to support, and that support will ultimately reach 330 votes. SKY News predicts 316, and The Times predicts 318, implying a narrow defeat.
Today's pound isn't falling much against either the dollar or the yen. The firmness suggests the market is assuming the Brexit bill will pass with a large majority.
Even if it is rejected, I think ultimately the Conservatives will win the general election and Boris Johnson's withdrawal bill will be put to a vote. If that is the case, even if it is rejected, that could become a buying opportunity. It may be okay to take a slightly longer position, but since it's a multi-week horizon and anything could happen, I'll wait and watch.
The required majority is 320, and the Conservative Party currently holds 287 seats. If 33 or more MPs from outside the Conservative Party vote in favor, the withdrawal bill will pass.
The most optimistic forecast comes from Goldman Sachs' UK economist Paul Adrian, who predicts that 30 Labour MPs will switch to support, and that support will ultimately reach 330 votes. SKY News predicts 316, and The Times predicts 318, implying a narrow defeat.
Today's pound isn't falling much against either the dollar or the yen. The firmness suggests the market is assuming the Brexit bill will pass with a large majority.
Even if it is rejected, I think ultimately the Conservatives will win the general election and Boris Johnson's withdrawal bill will be put to a vote. If that is the case, even if it is rejected, that could become a buying opportunity. It may be okay to take a slightly longer position, but since it's a multi-week horizon and anything could happen, I'll wait and watch.
Report by Hayakawa
Rikio Shima's Real-Time Practical Trades https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/re/ePlXYQg6KrkT1CK
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