Mr. Hiroshi Koya: The Nikkei average for the week of Monday, October 14 did not fit into any of the three patterns of gains

Every Friday, Mr. Koya Hiro's broadcast. The broadcast on Friday, October 11, predicts the Nikkei Average movement for the week of October 14.

Although the US-China agreement may change President Trump's remarks, the likelihood is high that it will end in a partial agreement, the structural problems will not be resolved, and the market already believes this partial agreement is priced in.

As I mentioned in the last broadcast, September 24 (Tuesday) is the Nikkei's recent high, but looking at the price on October 11 (Friday) of 21,790 yen and the current 20-day moving average, it seems unlikely that it will fall below 21,000 yen in the week of October 14 (Monday).

Also, in terms of whether the price will move higher, there are three patterns for the Nikkei's rise.

1. Continued net buying by foreign investors
2. A relief rally after a too-sharp decline
3. New highs in U.S. stocks
   

None of the above.

　Specifically, there were two instances of continued buying by foreign investors last year and this year, but this year it already occurred twice by September 20, so I think there will be no more occurrences by the end of December.

As for whether Japanese stocks have fallen too much, the RSI below 70% on the 20-day moving average would be a sign of an excessive decline, but currently it is in the 110% range and does not apply.

There have been no new highs in U.S. stocks either.

　From these, it is hard to envisage a rise.

Furthermore, since U.S. stocks have lost the momentum to push higher, the Nikkei Average is unlikely to surpass22,000.

Therefore, I think the Nikkei Average will hover between 21,000 and 22,000 yen.

Report by Hayakawa

From Koya Hiro's『From the Technical Room』 https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/re/NtwutIdxwSZHepS