[9/19 (Thu)] Analysis of the GBP/JPY market and trade strategy
Hello, this is Kinugasa.
This is the trading strategy for GBP/JPY on Thursday, September 19.
The trading strategy reflects Kinugasa's view and does not guarantee profits. Please understand that if you trade based on it and incur losses, Kinugasa cannot offer any compensation.
Also, the analysis is based on the Span Model and Super Bollinger.
詳しく解説していますので、もしよければご覧下さい。
Now, let's take a look right away!
GBP/JPY Strategy for Thursday, September 19
Daily chart
This is the GBP/JPY daily chart.
A late-session bullish signal and a buying bias indicate a buying-dominant environment.
It is positioned between the BB +1σ and +2σ, indicating an ascent within a cruising speed uptrend.
In this case,the basic strategy remains to buy.
However, as noted in yesterday's article, chasing a breakout at a new high is difficult.
Major resistance levels are consecutively at 135.750, 135.950, and 136.150,so even if prices push to new highs, there is a risk of being pushed back down.
Therefore, the base approach today is still a pullback buying stance.
Now, let's identify the levels where we should consider buying on the pullback using lower timeframes.
Daily to four-hour chart
This is the four-hour chart.
As you can see, buying pressure is bullish, but there is a sense that the upside is a bit heavy.
We applied Fibonacci retracement to the recent rally.
At around 135.460, near the 23.6% level, the BB −3σ and the Span Model's cloud lower bound are approaching.
This area seems to be the final line for pullback buying.
If this level breaks, we may need to reassess the downside.
1-hour chart
Next, the 1-hour chart.
Buyers still have the edge, but the BB is squeezing.
It may take some time before a decisive move upwards.
Now, the 23.6% retracement level derived from the four-hour chart is far down on the 1-hour chart.
It sits well below the Span Model’s cloud lower bound and well below BB −3σ.
In that case,there is a possibility that prices rise without a deep pullback.
Thus, I drew a trendline on the 1-hour chart.
If this path continues, a triangle coalescence between the recent high and the trendline is likely.
If the price maintains the trendline and breaks upward from the triangle, it may be reasonable to hold a long position aiming for a new high.
So, here is the summary of today’s strategy!
① Primarily aim to buy on pullbacks.
② However, there is a possibility that price rises without pulling back to 135.460.
③ Therefore,if a triangle breakout is confirmed, hold the long. If price then falls,the 135.400 level is the final defense line. Near 135.400, consider adding to long positions or averaging down(however,if price closes below 135.400,必ず損切り).
④ If price fails to move above the triangle and turns downward, wait for a pullback to around 135.400 before going long..
I think this kind of strategy is good.
That’s all for today’s GBP/JPY strategy!
