Current conventional wisdom

There are times when you have to break current conventional wisdom and fixed notions
that arise when facing the market.

You may worry that what you know is incorrect, but
time and the flow of history will prove that it was correct.

After the FOMC ends, with three rate hikes and expectations of a fourth priced in, it creates a risk-off environment
Stocks rise, Treasuries rise, and gold climbs—the market is one where outside the usual textbook notions have widened.
We remain cautious of such moves. Basically, we leave it to algorithmic strategies

The market is in a risk-off phase
Gold, oil, and commodity currencies present opportunities
EUR/USD and dollar crosses — a dollar-weak environment, short-term rebound
USD/JPY — short-term decline
Bitcoin has not updated its recent highs, and sentiment is turning sour
TLT: rising, rebound
Dow: steady rise

The NPC has finished, and we are watching the moves of the PBoC and the Bank of China with caution

Also,
the correlation between 10-year Treasuries and the yen, the correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/USD, and yen-buying as a safe-haven currency
The relationships between interest rates and the dollar, which were underpinned by geopolitical risk, and past premises, are changing
Around the world, markets are shifting from easing to tightening

Market interest rates and economic trends are now changing
What does that mean?

The market is facing changes not seen in 30 to 40 years

And, with the existence of Bitcoin, as well as the presence of safe-haven funds beyond gold, such as fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies
the market's mechanisms and gears are starting to wobble as if a new Internet is being born

The UK is moving toward establishing tax requirements for Bitcoin and is trying to apply fiat-currency requirements to cryptocurrencies

Then, what is the point of cryptocurrencies?
If it doesn't touch Fed law, there will be no regulation
Where will the boundary between fiat currency and cryptocurrency be?
There is no concrete line drawn yet

For professional inflows, you must have standards equivalent to those for fiat currencies
Therefore, for new technology and knowledge, we need to draw wisdom from history to inspire new creative ideas
The saying 'learning from the old to understand the new' is apt, and it is becoming applicable in this context

We must question current conventional wisdom, align with historical changes, and re-check history to think of a creative step
A moment is approaching to consider a creative step.
Therefore, if you feel anxiety, know that the world is thinking the same. Rest assured.

A remark from someone in Singapore startled me:
"If you don't understand it, the world doesn't understand it"

So, you are not alone; please wonder what is happening around the world right now
We are about to turn a new page in history
Let's feel the turning of history while sipping hot cocoa.

Reference article:

After finishing the FOMC, is this the beginning of a change that occurs once every 30 to 40 years～From the Sky Fox Newsletter～