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03/14/2017 19:30
Release： 03/14/2017 19:30
Update： 04/08/2021 02:35
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Nikkei 225 index Fujitomi
Nikkei stock average extends gains; range-bound after SQ https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=13630 With caution ahead of the U.S. employment report, the U.S. stock market edged higher. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.07% at 2364.87, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.46 points (+0.01%) to 20858.19. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose briefly to about 2.60%, its highest in nearly three months. In spite of this, buying in financial shares supported the market. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil futures hit a roughly three-month low, triggering selling in the oil sector and weighing on the market’s upside. NYMEX WTI futures for April finished at 49.28 dollars per barrel, down 1.00 dollar (1.99%). Domestic inventory concerns and vigilance over shale oil expansion plans bred bearish sentiment. In the U.S. FX market, the rise in U.S. interest rates led to a stronger dollar and weaker yen. By the close, the yen briefly touched around 115.00 per dollar, the lowest in about one and a half months since January 30. With expectations that the FOMC will hike rates next week on the 14th-15th, traders speculate that the pace of future rate hikes could be faster than previously anticipated. The ECB kept policy unchanged at its latest meeting. Draghi’s press conference was not as dovish as markets had expected, supporting euro-buying against major currencies. Stock index futures and options for the March contract, as the special quotation (SQ) date approaches, are expected to extend gains on the yen’s weakness. With the calendar shift for futures, from today the Nikkei 225 futures will trade below the Nikkei Stock Average by about 130 yen due to the March ex-dividend. After the SQ, with attention to the currency market, markets may become range-bound, but the dollar/yen at around 115 could allow further upside. In the U.S., the February employment data will be released. Next week, the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 【Buying factors】 ・Expectations of benefits from the Trump administration’s “growth-oriented policy” ・Expectations for Trump’s policies ・U.S. stock market modestly higher; energy shares rebound ・Dow Jones up (20858.19, +2.46) ・Nasdaq up (5838.81, +1.26) ・CME 225 futures higher than Osaka Exchange, close at 19290 (June contract) ・Fed Chair hints at March rate hike ・Forex: dollar-yen around 115.00-05 【Selling factors】 ・Oil futures further decline; U.S. WTI below 50 dollars for first time since December (49.28, -1.00) ・European stock markets slide with oil weakness ・Fear gauge VIX at 12.30, up from the previous day ・Concerns about Europe’s political situation ・Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election ・Uncertainty over EU national elections ・North Korea geopolitical risk ・Greece debt crisis resurging 【Other points to watch】 ・Major SQ calculation date ・EU leaders’ summit (Brussels, final day) ・Dollar weakens against euro, ECB President remarks; NY market ・U.S. bonds continue to fall; yields rise on expectations of more rate hikes; focus on employment data ・COMEX gold futures fall on expectations of U.S. rate hikes and a stronger dollar ・ECB keeps policy rate at 0.00% ・ECB keeps deposit facility rate at -0.40% ・New U.S. immigration order faced another injunction in Washington state ・U.S. to hold a meeting of 68 countries on the 22-23 to accelerate IS elimination ・U.S. Treasury Secretary requests early debt ceiling increase from Congress ・U.S. Fed buys $7.8 billion in government-sponsored MBS — NY Fed ・IMF Deputy Director warns that if France exits the euro, it would face severe poverty — local paper 《Schedule》 08:50 1Q and 3Q corporate sentiment survey 09:30 January Australian housing loans 16:00 February German PPI (WPI) 16:00 January German trade balance 16:00 January German current account 16:45 January French industrial production index 18:30 January UK industrial production index Manufacturing output 18:30 January UK trade balance 22:30 February U.S. employment data 22:30 February Canadian employment data 04:00 11th February U.S. monthly treasury balance We would appreciate if you could refer to Twitter for market updates. https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740
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【Fujitomi】Tokyo stock market shows slightly more selling pressure; buyers hold back ahead of Japan-US meeting

The U.S. stock market fell yesterday. The S&P 500 index closed at 2,365.45, down 0.33% from the previous day, and the Dow Jones industrial average finished at 20,837.37, down 44.11 dollars (0.21%). With policy meetings from the FOMC, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England approaching, risk appetite was lacking. Energy was weighed down as crude oil futures prices fell from early trading, contributing to overall weakness.

NYMEX WTI futures for April settled at 47.72 dollars per barrel, down 68 cents (1.4%) from the previous day, the lowest since November 29 last year, after a seven-session decline amid softening sentiment from reports of Saudi Arabia’s increased production.

In the New York forex market, the yen strengthened against the dollar and the Euro. The dollar rose against major currencies.

Today the Nikkei stock average is expected to begin with selling pressure, but with the Dutch lower house election and the FOMC in focus, a wait-and-see mood is likely to prevail. If oil and currency movements push the morning session lower, the afternoon session could see support from the BOJ ETF buying, limiting downside.

The market largely expects an additional rate hike from the FOMC. After the FOMC, futures markets are watching the participants’ projections for future rate paths, as some expect acceleration in the pace of rate hikes, drawing attention.

In terms of individual stocks, Toshiba’s stock movement remains a focus. The Tokyo Stock Exchange announced yesterday that Toshiba shares were designated as an issue with possible delisting on the 15th.

In China, the National People’s Congress has closed, and Premier Li Keqiang is scheduled to hold a press conference.



[News to Watch]


- Expectations for President Trump's policies

- Economic cooperation strengthened by the visit of the King of Saudi Arabia

- Support from BOJ ETF purchases in supply-demand

- U.S. February Producer Price Index (PPI) month-over-month +0.3% (expected +0.1%) (previous +0.6%)

- U.S. February PPI excluding food and energy (core) month-over-month +0.3% (expected +0.2%) (previous +0.4%)


[News to Sell]


- U.S. stock market: Soft; wait-and-see ahead of the FOMC results; energy stocks weak

- Dow Jones down (20,837.37, -44.11)

- European stock markets retreating; heavy moves tied to political developments

- London stock market retreat, banks selling on the Brexit bill approval

- NY crude futures continued to fall, staying above the five-year average for developed countries (47.72, -0.68)

- CME 225 futures lagging Osaka Exchange (19,430, -50)

- Fear Index VIX at 12.30, up from the previous day

- Concerns over European political developments

- Uncertainty over the French presidential election

- Uncertainty ahead of EU parliamentary elections

- North Korea geopolitical risks

- Greece debt crisis rekindled


[Other Points of Attention]


〇 FOMC policy rate decision after the end

○ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Day 1)

・ Bank of England MPC meeting (through the 16th)

・ Dutch lower house election

・ U.S. debt ceiling raise deadline

・ Tillerson to visit Japan (through the 17th)


・ Persists listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mothers market (IPO price: 1,250 yen)


・ U.S. bond market: Mixed; buybacks in long-term debt ahead of events

・ NY gold futures retreat as dollar recovery weighs slightly

・ NZ current account deficit in Q4: 2.335 billion NZ dollars


、President Trump to sign an executive order reviewing climate change measures this week

・ President Trump to meet with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince to discuss U.S. investment and Syria issues

・ French prosecutors formally investigating presidential candidate François Fillon for embezzlement

・ Unclear if China is still manipulating its currency, according to US Treasury nominee

・ Greek banks face significant problems with non-performing loans, ECB supervisor chief says

・ No unified view yet on extending oil production cuts — Russian presidential spokesperson

・ Citigroup considering Dublin as European base post-Brexit; decision pending

・ Turkish president hints at further sanctions on the Netherlands; “apologies still not enough”


《Schedule》


13:00 Tokyo metropolitan area condominium sales (February)

13:30 January industrial production provisional data

16:00 Foreign visitors to Japan (February)


06:45 New Zealand current account balance for Q4

16:00 Turkey unemployment rate (December)

16:45 February Japan CPI (revised)

17:15 February Switzerland PPI

18:30 February UK employment data

18:30 January–February UK unemployment rate

18:30 Prates ECB executive board member speaks

19:00 BER (South Africa) business confidence index for Q1

20:00 January South Africa retail sales

20:00 MBA mortgage applications index

21:30 March U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index

21:30 February U.S. CPI

Core index excludes energy and food

21:30 February U.S. retail sales

22:45 Visco, head of Banca d’Italia, speaks

23:00 March NAHB housing market index

23:00 January U.S. business inventories

23:30 EIA weekly crude oil stock

03:00 on the 16th FOMC policy rate decision

03:00 on the 16th FOMC economic and rate projections

03:30 on the 16th Yellen press conference (FRB Chair)

05:00 on the 16th January U.S. securities investment flows



For market updates, please refer to Twitter. https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740

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■ Important Matters and Risk Warnings Regarding Investment Products 【Financial Instruments Business Operator】
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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