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03/13/2017 19:27
Release： 03/13/2017 19:27
Update： 04/08/2021 02:35
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Nikkei 225 index Fujitomi
Nikkei stock average extends gains; range-bound after SQ https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=13630 With caution ahead of the U.S. employment report, the U.S. stock market edged higher. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.07% at 2364.87, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.46 points (+0.01%) to 20858.19. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose briefly to about 2.60%, its highest in nearly three months. In spite of this, buying in financial shares supported the market. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil futures hit a roughly three-month low, triggering selling in the oil sector and weighing on the market’s upside. NYMEX WTI futures for April finished at 49.28 dollars per barrel, down 1.00 dollar (1.99%). Domestic inventory concerns and vigilance over shale oil expansion plans bred bearish sentiment. In the U.S. FX market, the rise in U.S. interest rates led to a stronger dollar and weaker yen. By the close, the yen briefly touched around 115.00 per dollar, the lowest in about one and a half months since January 30. With expectations that the FOMC will hike rates next week on the 14th-15th, traders speculate that the pace of future rate hikes could be faster than previously anticipated. The ECB kept policy unchanged at its latest meeting. Draghi’s press conference was not as dovish as markets had expected, supporting euro-buying against major currencies. Stock index futures and options for the March contract, as the special quotation (SQ) date approaches, are expected to extend gains on the yen’s weakness. With the calendar shift for futures, from today the Nikkei 225 futures will trade below the Nikkei Stock Average by about 130 yen due to the March ex-dividend. After the SQ, with attention to the currency market, markets may become range-bound, but the dollar/yen at around 115 could allow further upside. In the U.S., the February employment data will be released. Next week, the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 【Buying factors】 ・Expectations of benefits from the Trump administration’s “growth-oriented policy” ・Expectations for Trump’s policies ・U.S. stock market modestly higher; energy shares rebound ・Dow Jones up (20858.19, +2.46) ・Nasdaq up (5838.81, +1.26) ・CME 225 futures higher than Osaka Exchange, close at 19290 (June contract) ・Fed Chair hints at March rate hike ・Forex: dollar-yen around 115.00-05 【Selling factors】 ・Oil futures further decline; U.S. WTI below 50 dollars for first time since December (49.28, -1.00) ・European stock markets slide with oil weakness ・Fear gauge VIX at 12.30, up from the previous day ・Concerns about Europe’s political situation ・Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election ・Uncertainty over EU national elections ・North Korea geopolitical risk ・Greece debt crisis resurging 【Other points to watch】 ・Major SQ calculation date ・EU leaders’ summit (Brussels, final day) ・Dollar weakens against euro, ECB President remarks; NY market ・U.S. bonds continue to fall; yields rise on expectations of more rate hikes; focus on employment data ・COMEX gold futures fall on expectations of U.S. rate hikes and a stronger dollar ・ECB keeps policy rate at 0.00% ・ECB keeps deposit facility rate at -0.40% ・New U.S. immigration order faced another injunction in Washington state ・U.S. to hold a meeting of 68 countries on the 22-23 to accelerate IS elimination ・U.S. Treasury Secretary requests early debt ceiling increase from Congress ・U.S. Fed buys $7.8 billion in government-sponsored MBS — NY Fed ・IMF Deputy Director warns that if France exits the euro, it would face severe poverty — local paper 《Schedule》 08:50 1Q and 3Q corporate sentiment survey 09:30 January Australian housing loans 16:00 February German PPI (WPI) 16:00 January German trade balance 16:00 January German current account 16:45 January French industrial production index 18:30 January UK industrial production index Manufacturing output 18:30 January UK trade balance 22:30 February U.S. employment data 22:30 February Canadian employment data 04:00 11th February U.S. monthly treasury balance We would appreciate if you could refer to Twitter for market updates. https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740
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[Fujitomi] Tokyo stock market shows little progress ahead of the Japan-U.S. monetary policy meeting decision

U.S. stock market closed mixed. The S&P 500 index rose 0.03 from the previous business day to 2373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to finish at 20,881.48. With the FOMC rate decision due on Wednesday, the session was quiet. Automaker Intel announced it would acquire Mobileye (Israel) for about $1.53 billion (approximately 1.75 trillion yen), lifting enthusiasm in autonomous driving and semiconductor-related shares. This week, in addition to the FOMC, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings.

New York Mercantile Exchange WTI futures for the April contract finished at 48.40 dollars per barrel, down 9 cents (0.19%) from Friday, the lowest since November 29 last year, as concerns about global oversupply continued to cap gains, marking six straight trading sessions of declines.

The OSE 225 futures for June in the night session finished at 19,530 yen, up 10 yen from the daytime session. Today’s Nikkei Stock Average is expected to trade in a tight range ahead of the U.S. blizzard forecast and the FOMC decision, while also watching the exchange rate; on the other hand, the market is at a high level from last year’s highs, making profit-taking likely.

In individual stocks, Toshiba is drawing attention. It is reported that the company plans to postpone its earnings release for 2016 (April–December) again.


【Positive factors】


・Expected benefits from the Trump administration’s “high-growth trajectory”

・Expectations for President Trump’s policies

・Strengthening economic cooperation as the Saudi king visits Japan

・European stock markets: small gains, cautious mood, factors such as corporate restructuring watched

・Nasdaq rises (5875.78, +14.06)

・NY forex — rebound dollar buying and yen selling flow predominates; 1 USD = 114.90–114.95 yen

・CME 225 futures up against Osaka Exchange (19540, +20)

・Fear gauge VIX at 11.35, down from the previous day


【Negative factors】


・Dow Jones drops (20,881.48, −21.50)

・NY crude futures — decline continues; declines eased by comments from oil-producing country officials (48.40, −0.09)

・North Sea Brent crude futures briefly hit a three-month low as concerns about oversupply persist

・JASDAQ hits 21-session winning streak stoppage

・Concerns about Europe’s political situation

・Uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election

・Uncertainty ahead of EU national elections

・Geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula

・Greece debt crisis resurfacing


【Other notable points】


○ FOMC Day 1

・Toshiba’s formal settlement submission deadline for 2016-12

・2Q-3Q 20-year government bond auctions


・U.S. stock market — mixed; markets subdued ahead of FOMC results

・U.S. Treasuries — retreat as expectations for rate hikes persist

・Gold futures in New York — rebounded as equities fell, reflecting demand for safe-haven assets

・U.S. Intel buys Mobileye for $15.3 billion


・White House says U.S.-Germany summit is postponed to the 17th due to weather (from tomorrow the 14th)

・U.S. Treasury official says the U.S. will urge G20 members to adhere to currency agreements

・Mnuchin, in a statement by a U.S. Treasury official, intends to work to advance national interests at the G20

・CBO: ObamaCare replacement by Republicans would cause tens of millions to lose insurance

・Merkel says she plans broad discussions with Trump, according to a German government spokesperson

・U.S.-China leaders’ summit being arranged for early next month at a Florida residence

・Formal EU withdrawal procedures begin; UK prime minister’s spokesperson emphasizes “by month-end”

・Funding raised from Solaris Bank in Germany and SBI Holdings in Japan

・Japanese and U.S. finance chiefs to meet for the first time on the 17th, per government sources


《Schedule》


10:00 Monthly business outlook report (as of March 10, Bank of Japan)

17:00 Bank of Japan’s balance by bond issue

17:00 Bank of Japan’s purchases of government short-term securities by issue


09:30 February Australia NAB business confidence index

11:00 February China industrial production

11:00 February China retail sales

16:00 February German CPI (revised)

19:00 January Eurozone industrial production

19:00 March ZEW economic sentiment index (Germany)

19:00 March ZEW economic sentiment index (Eurozone)

21:30 February U.S. wholesale inventories

Core index excluding food and energy



We hope you will refer to Twitter for market updates: https://twitter.com/fujitomi_8740

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■ Important Matters and Risk Warnings Regarding Investment Products 【Financial Instruments Business Operator】
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
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