Hashimoto Kosei's 'FX Outlook' 2017/3/8

Kosei Hashimoto's 'FX Outlook' March 8, 2017 08:53
Publisher: Daily Market (Kosei Hashimoto)


(Strategy) Dollar, deal within the range,
(Comment)
USD/JPY continues to form a narrow-range doji with little price movement and is not a market capable of generating energy. It’s the calm before the storm, so today as well there seems to be nothing but small-range trades to deal with.
On the time frame it is moving upward in a right-shoulder from 113.80 to 114.25 yen. Accordingly today too it will move around 114 yen. We will trade in small positions and ensure we can respond quickly if the price exits the range.
On the upside, if it goes beyond 115.20 yen, expect 117 yen direction, with room for a rebound to 118.60–118.80. On the downside, there is support at 111.20–111.30, but if it breaks 111, 108 becomes the next downside target. In this case the dollar's rebound would be limited. From a market view, Trump's grandiose plans may be a trap and the dollar's decline is likely, but ahead of that, given the outlook for U.S. rate hikes, I expect the path to test how far the dollar can rise to continue. It would be good to be able to accumulate selling, but it could become a bit tougher, so I would like to accumulate profits and take a short position.
What I want to do is sell around 114.20, buy around 113.80. Stops: short at 114.95, long at 113.45. (March 8, 8:53, 1 USD = 113.95)