In the early May period, the EUR/USD at 1.16 drew attention for being oversold after its stall (dangerous).
May 14, 2016 19:00
Over the weekend, the NY market reacted with a stronger dollar as US retail sales surpassed expectations, but the dollar/yen struggled to hold around the mid-109s and failed to sustain 109. A report in the late night about delaying another consumption tax increase was also brief in impact, and the dollar/yen seems set to test the downside again rather than await the summit. US stocks also failed to hold 18,000, gradually slipping, indicating that Abenomics faces a real test continues.
In trading, the previous week the dollar/yen weekly chart flashed a sell signal (danger), but it rebounded and profits were realized faster than before. This May, after EUR/USD touched 1.16 and formed a top wick before being pulled back, the weekly Ichimoku cloud upper bound was evidently watched, and this weekend prices dropped to around 1.13.
However, at Ask Ultimate MAX, there has been a buy signal on the weekly chart for the first time in a while, and the situation remains unchanged. From here, the focus is on the four-hour chart where the sell signal persists and the sell-too-much (danger) signal is starting to appear. Next week, while the early part of the week may see further downside, there is potential for the lower 1.12s to produce a long lower shadow (wick).
There is no particular reason to buy the euro, but the euro has surged to the 1.16s this month and on the weekly chart has firmly moved into the Ichimoku cloud, so for the near term, if there is no change in the weekly signals, one might consider buying dips with a bullish bias while moving through the cloud.
If the euro market changes in the near term, the immediate material to watch would be the UK referendum on EU membership. From next week, surveys are expected to become more active. Headlines over the weekend suggested a significant lead for remaining in the EU from Prime Minister Cameron, and going forward a shift from one-sided EU exit concerns to a tug-of-war between exit and remain is expected. If the UK remains in the EU, it would be a positive reaction for the eurozone, with the pound likely to rebound and the euro showing buying dominance. It seems quite possible that May's early highs could be broken.
Ask Ultimate MAX Euro/Dollar Review
FX Strategy Blog Article Here
Over the weekend, the NY market reacted with a stronger dollar as US retail sales surpassed expectations, but the dollar/yen struggled to hold around the mid-109s and failed to sustain 109. A report in the late night about delaying another consumption tax increase was also brief in impact, and the dollar/yen seems set to test the downside again rather than await the summit. US stocks also failed to hold 18,000, gradually slipping, indicating that Abenomics faces a real test continues.
In trading, the previous week the dollar/yen weekly chart flashed a sell signal (danger), but it rebounded and profits were realized faster than before. This May, after EUR/USD touched 1.16 and formed a top wick before being pulled back, the weekly Ichimoku cloud upper bound was evidently watched, and this weekend prices dropped to around 1.13.
However, at Ask Ultimate MAX, there has been a buy signal on the weekly chart for the first time in a while, and the situation remains unchanged. From here, the focus is on the four-hour chart where the sell signal persists and the sell-too-much (danger) signal is starting to appear. Next week, while the early part of the week may see further downside, there is potential for the lower 1.12s to produce a long lower shadow (wick).
There is no particular reason to buy the euro, but the euro has surged to the 1.16s this month and on the weekly chart has firmly moved into the Ichimoku cloud, so for the near term, if there is no change in the weekly signals, one might consider buying dips with a bullish bias while moving through the cloud.
If the euro market changes in the near term, the immediate material to watch would be the UK referendum on EU membership. From next week, surveys are expected to become more active. Headlines over the weekend suggested a significant lead for remaining in the EU from Prime Minister Cameron, and going forward a shift from one-sided EU exit concerns to a tug-of-war between exit and remain is expected. If the UK remains in the EU, it would be a positive reaction for the eurozone, with the pound likely to rebound and the euro showing buying dominance. It seems quite possible that May's early highs could be broken.
Ask Ultimate MAX Euro/Dollar Review
FX Strategy Blog Article Here
written by かわせりぐい
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