Interview with Avail's developer Ore era-san [Avail is a one-position trade EA that relentlessly pursues a 100% win rate!

“Avail -USDJPY-” is,an EA that relentlessly pursues a 100% win rate with a single position.

TakeProfit and StopLoss can both be adjusted, but the values set here are fixed. For each trade, the TakeProfit value when you “buy” or the StopLoss value when you hit a loss aredecided clearly in advancebefore trading.
In the standard settings, TakeProfit is “12 (12 pips)”, StopLoss is “105 (105 pips)”.

If you set Lots to “1.0” as recommended, profits would be +12,000 yen on a winning trade, while a loss would be -105,000 yen on a stop-out.
There is a close gap of about 8.8 timesfrom pure probability considerations as well. Even in a simple probabilistic sense,you would lose about 1 time out of 8.8 and still be net neutral.

However, “Avail -USDJPY-” shows performance that cannot be explained by probability alone.

Backtests, and the current 100% win-rate forward test.

This is where the difference is clear: “Avail -USDJPY-” is a 100% win-rate, single-position trading EA. Yetthere may be times in the long run when a drawdown necessitates a stop-out.

Then,if you are holding a large unrealized loss and the stop-out range is unknown,you may worry about when you will be stopped out, or “what if I get stopped out here,” making it hard to sleep at night.

Therefore, trusting my presentation or loving this EA, users naturally expect and I must work to ensure they can achieve results efficiently and with peace of mind...

“Avail -USDJPY-” inherits my determination, communicates clearly, and,truly focuses on ultimate win rate as an EA.

I would like you to use it as a part of your portfolio.
First, my thoughts on a portfolio.

To make it easy to understand, I’ll speak candidly since it’s not a best-case scenario.
Nanpin-type EAs are not suitable for building a portfolio.

In particular, simple averaging-in without a stop-out function can lead to collapse sooner or later, I believe.
When you build a portfolio, other EAs’ gains may offset each other.

Next, assuming you build a portfolio with assets beyond Nanpin EAs.
If you form a portfolio, it is wise to mix pairs and methods rather than using the same pair or same approach only.

One major purpose of a portfolio is effective diversification to reduce investment risks.

Even if EAs differ, collecting similar ones won’t efficiently achieve the intended diversification.

For example, if you gather many EAs that trade the same pair, same timeframe, or same trend-following or breakout approach, you’ll end up with a dataset that trades in a similar pattern.

However, with Avail -USDJPY-, which is a one-position EA with overwhelmingly high win rate, it gathers a lot of information not only from the chart’s time frame but also from other time frames, combining past experience and current conditionsand future predictionsto make decisions that are not bound to a fixed pattern.

“Avail -USDJPY-”can be combined with any other EA and still trade independently to achieve stable results.

A friend introduced me, and I found it interesting. Until now, I’ve used it for clients and for myself.

My development method may be a bit unconventional.
First, I form hypotheses about the trading method (entry, settlement).
I think this approach could yield profits.
Thenbefore starting EA development, I build a tool to verify whether the hypothesis is correct

It runs on MT4 and uses MQL4.

Building this provides several advantages.

Firstlyinstead of waiting many hours to simulate results as in backtests,you can obtain similar profit/loss results in a matter of seconds.

Being able to know the results in seconds means you can more quickly find more effective settingsin a shorter time.

Also, as needed, you can test adding other indicators to the conditions.

It supports other pairs and various timeframes, so you can instantly see those results too.

Andonly when there is a reasonable likelihood do I proceed with EA development.

After completion, of course I run backtests, but by then I already know how well it will perform.

This development approach began about five years ago, and since then,development time has been reduced to a fraction of what it used to be.
Also,I can identify and set more effective parameter values, and I can concurrently develop several effective pairs and timeframes.

I will continue to develop EAs using this approach going forward.