Michiko Kawai's Strategy for Today 2017/03/07 09:27

USD/JPY (as of 9:26: 113.95-96) 

USD/JPY, near-term strategy is to buy on dips. Crosses/yen, downside is being held.

Recent daily candles ended with a small trading range, lacking a clear directional feel, but they defended the downside at 113.50-60 and finished with a small rebound, suggesting the move to test the thick resistance around the mid-114s is likely to resume. For today, look to buy lightly around 113.80-90. The stop loss is 113.40 for a shallow exit. If this is hit, re-enter on a dip around 113.00-10. Stop loss at 112.30 for an exit. 
The short-term trend remains neutral, but a weekly close above 114, or a clear break of the 115.50-60 resistance, would pave the way for further dollar upside; conversely, a weekly close below 112, or a drop through 111.50, would tend to lead to further declines. 

Daily chart resistance is at 114.60-70, 115.10-20, with support at 113.50-60, 113.00-10, 112.70-80. 

EUR/USD is retreating. Given that it is hitting the 1.0640 upside resistance and there is no sign of a short-term trend change, look to sell again around 1.0600-10. Upside potential should be viewed up to around 1.0620. The stop is 1.0660 for now. The short-term trend will not change unless it recovers into the 1.07s. Waiting on buying for now. There is a slightly strong lower resistance at 1.0520-30. 

EUR/JPY is edging lower slightly.It has temporarily met strong upside resistance around the low 121 yen, but due to some strong downside support near 120.00-20, it is defending this level and could push higher again. Buy around 120.10-20 with a light dip-buy. Stop at 119.70 for a shallow exit. The short-term trend becomes neutral if it falls below 119. Selling is on hold or lightly selling near 121.10-20 resistance. Stop at 121.60 for an exit. Even if this happens, daily and weekly upper resistance remains scattered in the 122-123 yen zone, and unless it clears above 123.50 to close above week, be cautious of aggressive buying. Conversely, a break below 118.50 would trigger further downside risk. 

GBP/USD is retreating.Downside risk remains higher. However, on a weekly basis there is strong resistance in the 1.21–1.22 zone, and unless it closes the week below 1.2050, there is risk of sharp declines; be careful of a sell-off. Buying is on hold. For selling, wait a day or target a light sell on a rebound around 1.2280-90. Stop at 1.2330. The short-term trend returns to neutral if it breaks above 1.2450-60, but even then the downside risk remains until it surpasses the 1.26s to close the week above. 

GBP/JPY slips modestly again.There is no change in the downtrend, but volatility has been narrowing, so a directional move could come at any time; watch carefully. For buying, wait-and-see or try a light buy around 139.00-10. Stop at 138.40 for further downside risk. For selling, sell on rallies around 140.20-30. Stop at 141.10 for an exit. 

AUD/JPY isended with a small bearish candle, indicating some weight on the upside, but it has defended the 86.00-86.20 downside resistance and leaves room for a small rebound. Buy around 86.30-40 with a light dip-buy. Stop at 85.80. Sell/hold off: wait-and-see. There is somewhat strong upside resistance at 87.30-40. 

(USD/JPY) 
Upper resistance: 114.10-20, 114.40-50, 114.70-80, 115.10-20, 115.40-50 
Lower support: 113.70-80, 113.50-60, 113.00-113.10, 112.70-80, 112.40-50

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