【Sky Fox Newsletter 2016/3/6 Weekly Report】　Evaluation of each stock　Switch to a new method

Weekly Report 1 2017-3-6 The Sound of Spring Bells

1. Trade Journal Notes

Main scenario: Market tone. Risk level: Risk Level A–E. A: Very good; B: Good; C: Watch/Neutral; D: Slightly risky; E: Dangerous

Market overall: Risk-on readiness. Short-term: consolidation; Mid-term: trend revival; Long-term: clear trend. B
Dow: Short-term: rise; Mid- to long-term: rise; solid market conditions. A
USD/JPY: Short-term: consolidation range; buying opportunities; Mid- to long-term: rise; focus on the 110 line; scenario invalidated; B
Nikkei 225: Short-term: consolidation range; buying opportunities; Mid- to long-term: rise; momentum concerns weaken; B
Bitcoin: Short-term: rise; Mid-term: rise; Long-term: range; confirm continuation of new highs; oscillator overheat; A
Crude Oil: Short-term: range; test the upside; Mid- to long-term: rebound and rise; testing upper end of range; B
Gold: Short-term: consolidation; rise; buying opportunities; Mid- to long-term: rise; A
Treasury yields: Short-term: range; Mid- to long-term: rebound and rise; Watchful; This week's main focus: C
TLT: Short-, mid-, long-term: range; range; C
Resource currencies: Short-term: consolidation; rise; focus this week; Mid- to long-term: rise; waiting for a box-up
EUR/USD: Short-term: rebound; Mid- to long-term: decline; There is the possibility of a rebound into the mid-term; April change date? April 10-15; C

 

The Sound of Spring Bells

sound of clanging metal as a warning signal occurs simultaneously
It is a tone that can also be interpreted as a calm opportunity.
In the short term, positions are being adjusted; the change dates March 5-10 have lit up
Caution is required up to this point
Around here, the trend will be decided again, with a clear outlook through May

Fundamentally,
Japan, with factors such as Prime Minister Abe's term extension, remains positive while waiting for the next catalyst

China lowers growth target to 6.5%… pay attention to NPC comments; this continues for about 10 days 

The results of the US employment data, depending on the contents of the Budget Message, may provide new positive catalysts

Compared with the US, political risk is higher in the United States, determined by Trump alone; the EU must balance member states' opinions. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EU and the euro will see increasing advantage for the EU.
France's polling suggests Le Pen's candidacy is less likely, reducing political risk


Attention is rising to Draghi's comments on the ECB on the 9th. If CPI and other strong results continue and there are comments about an exit, there could be a short-term rebound to the EU that could reverse the downtrend. Please be vigilant for counter-scenarios up to the change date

Therefore, we will focus on EU government bond yields to make the final judgment on the EU and GBP trends.
The market is pricing in the US March rate hike and the number of rate hikes
This month's US GDP and Trump assessment will determine
Emerging market risk: attention on EU populism
Because it coincides with the change date, the combination of statistics and fundamentals will create a very strong shift

Ratings for each ticker

Gold, resource currencies; AUD, observe this week's adjustment climate
Because concerns about one-sided dollar strength exist, gold and resource currencies are being bought as safe havens

USD/JPY and Nikkei are slipping in the short term, with upper levels heavy
There is movement to gauge Japan's real growth
Being driven by the US, if the genuine growth potential wanes, disappointment
In the morning, geopolitical risks such as North Korea missiles are rising
Therefore, while optimism supports an ascent, short-term downside risk from news has increased

Bitcoin has surpassed gold in price per troy ounce
However, this is not overblown; comparing correlation coefficients is unnecessary
This level gives the impression that confidence in Bitcoin has increased
Nevertheless, it is a steady rise. We will follow algorithmic trend-following

Crude oil remains in a high price range; waiting for a future range breakout

Dow is experiencing profit-taking and correcting; will the 210,000 level hold? Focus is on that

For overall judgment, attention is on the levels and movements of TLT and other Treasuries; this week's key
If the levels hold, it's short-term risk-off and just a correction; mid- to long-term is risk-on
If this level breaks, a counter-scenario will be triggered

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