If a large order appears at the [show board], what happens to the price? Is the show board a chance?
Hello everyone, here is a showcase board! A large showcase board is a chance, I think@xi10jun1です。
As it is the season for filing taxes, the blog about BTCFX tax filing has been getting quite a bit of traffic. There is a link under the column’s footer section 2, so please read it later.
Now, this week we will examine the showcase boards that also appear in BTCFX.
This week’s results (February 17, 2017 to February 23, 2017)
First, as usual, the results. I will publish the gains and losses first.
- Last week (through February 16, 2017) assets: 68,052 yen
- This week (through February 23, 2017) assets: 69,008 yen
- Change: +956 yen
Although it’s only a little, assets continued to reach new highs! However, this week, due to tax filing, colds, and other things, BTCFX trading was a bit sporadic…
It’s better than not having decreased, but we still need to make money through trading. I will reflect on this.
This week, let’s look at the showcase boards!
So this time I’d like to conduct a trade analysis on showcase boards.
You may already know about showcase boards, but I’ll briefly explain again as a review.
What is a showcase board?
Showcase boards, also called show manipulation (gyoku), involve placing buy orders when you have no intention to buy, or placing sell orders when you have no intention to sell. As the term “show” suggests, these orders are meant to be displayed to mislead others and drive the price up or down, with the aim of price manipulation.
For example, suppose there is a stock priced at 100 yen. Before the market opens, a showcase board places 1,000,000 shares buy orders at 100 yen. Of course there’s no real intention to buy, but other investors will judge as follows.
“Wow, buying is piling up. If the buying is this thick, it won’t go lower; there are buyers, so the price might rise. I should buy now.”
In this way, the price (or the quote since trading hasn’t opened yet) rises. When the market opens and it reaches 105 yen, those initially placed buy orders are actually sold off, and the 100-share buy orders are canceled.
With large buy orders gone, investors who misjudged may realize it and start selling, and eventually the price returns to 100 yen. The one who made the large buy orders and then sold them at a decent price ends up benefiting.
Thus, there are acts that exploit investors’ expectations for profit.
Naturally, such acts are prohibited in securities trading, but they are not fully regulated in reality. And in Bitcoin margin trading, there are currently no such laws, and it isn’t even a financial product or currency, so it’s possible to do as one pleases.
That is showcase boards, and they appear quite frequently when looking at the bitFlyer Lightning order book.
Sell orders around 130,000
There was such a showcase-like movement this week, so I’ll 소개 this here. First, please view the GIF.
Suddenly at 130,000 yen there appeared a 50 BTC sell order. Before the January crash, there were many buy and sell orders lined up like this, and boards of 100 BTC appeared without issue.
When such a sell board appears, it becomes difficult to break through. Conversely, if there are enough buyers to break through this, placing buy orders slightly above 130,000 yen could allow you to ride the trend and profit.
Even so, will it go well… For now, I have a 1 BTC buy position at 129,999 yen with a stop at 129.899 yen to monitor.
About 50 seconds later
After about 50 seconds, a sell board appears with 49 BTC at 130,000 yen, 31 BTC at 129,999 yen, and 13 BTC at 129,998 yen, lining up in order.
Showcase boards can be dispersed as well.
For example, what started as 100 BTC sell orders may split into 70 BTC and 30 BTC, or leave 30 BTC while moving 70 BTC at another price. This is common to see.
About 40 seconds later
Another 40 seconds later, the 130,000 yen sell board of around 40 BTC suddenly vanishes.
Since the 129,999 yen board remains when it vanishes, it wasn’t bought.
Thus, there are people (big players?) placing and retracting orders to steer the price.
Free summary: It’s not conclusive, but such movements certainly exist
This time I analyzed showcase boards, but honestly with showcase boards, the only thing to do is not to be fooled.
When extreme buy or sell orders appear in BTCFX, orders of about 30 BTC–100 BTC suddenly appear in bulk. Or you may see about 12 BTC orders in a quiet book to guide the price.
If such a board appears, observe first. It’s not clear whether it’s a showcase board or a real buy/sell order.
If there is price movement that surpasses that board, a trend in that direction may form, presenting a trading opportunity. However, it’s hard to discern, so avoid large positions and wait to see what happens next before taking action.
I will clearly explain what happened next in the paid section, so if you’re interested please consider subscribing.
Footer Corner 1: Try shopping with Bitcoin!
Actually, the overseas e-commerce site “FANCY” allows you to purchase goods with Bitcoin! It costs a bit for shipping, but you can find stylish items you won’t see in Japan!
How to use FANCY is summarized in this blog, so please refer to it.
- →Explained how to create an account, register, set up, and purchase on FANCY! | Investor Jun of the Yutori generation
- →How to buy (settle) FANCY items with Bitcoin | Investor Jun of the Yutori generation
Footer Corner 2: How to handle BTCFX tax filing
Tax season has arrived, but you must declare BTCFX profits as well! I’ve blogged about what I confirmed by phone with the tax office, so please refer to it for reference.
Note that opinions may vary even among tax offices and tax accountants. Also laws may change and filing methods may change. Before filing, be sure to confirm with your nearest tax office or tax professional.
Note that the free portion ends here. The following is detailed analysis and future outlook, so it is paid content. If you want to read more, subscribing would be very encouraging! Thank you for your continued support.
