200,000 yen in 4 days to about 400,000 yen? The power and challenges of GOLD EA
Introduction: Why I am writing this article
I am currently developing a GOLD-specific automated trading program called "Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA."
This EA incorporates the thinking I have used in the GOLD market up to now.
Basically, it is a method to trade on a 1-minute chart after confirming the overall market trend on higher timeframes.
During the period from November 2 to November 5, 2026, starting with basic funds of 200,000 yen, it generated nearly 400,000 yen in profit.
However, I do not consider this result alone to guarantee future profits of the same kind.
This time, I will honestly describe not only why profits occurred, but also current challenges such as weakness in range-bound markets and future improvement plans.
1. First, the results
Results from starting with 200,000 yen
The operation conditions this time were as follows.
Subject: GOLD
Trading method: automated trading
Primary timeframe: 1-minute
Reference higher timeframe: upper timeframes
Operation period: 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-05
Starting capital: about 200,000 yen
Profit: about 400,000 yen
What is important to note here is whether the amount grew from 200,000 yen to about 400,000 yen, or whether it was 200,000 yen used to generate about 400,000 yen in profit. These two are different meanings.
This is not a reason to call the result a success by itself.
Why these numbers alone do not prove success
A large profit in four days is a very pleasing result for a developer.
However, four days of performance alone cannot determine the long-term ability of the EA.
This time, it is possible that the market favorably trended in a way that the EA excels at.
If market movements change, the same settings may yield smaller profits or continued losses.
Therefore, the current result should be viewed not as proof of a finished EA, but as a result worth continuing to test in the future.
2. What is Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA
EA is a program that trades automatically
EA is a program that automatically places orders and closes positions when certain conditions are met.
Instead of a human continuously watching the screen to place orders, it trades according to pre-set rules.
However, EA does not predict the market perfectly.
It will trade when conditions are met, but its judgments can be wrong as well.
Why GOLD was chosen
GOLD can move significantly even over short periods.
Therefore, even on short timeframes like the 1-minute chart, trading opportunities arise readily for this instrument.
On the other hand, large price movements mean that both profits and losses can be sizable.
Price can move sharply in a short time due to sudden news or changes in interest rates.
How I incorporated my method
In Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA, I first check the higher timeframes.
Higher timeframes are longer than the 1-minute chart.
For example, I look at the 15-minute or 1-hour chart to determine whether the market is trending up, down, or lacking a clear direction.
Then, while watching the finer movements on the 1-minute chart, I search for the timing of trades.
3. How I trade on the 1-minute chart
Seeing the big trend and the small price movements
Focusing only on the 1-minute chart can expose you to the small, immediate price moves in front of you.
Therefore, I first confirm the overall trend on higher timeframes.
Then I look for moments on the 1-minute chart where price temporarily moved in the opposite direction.
If the big trend is upward, I search for moments where a brief drop is followed by another rise.
Conversely, if the big trend is downward, I look for moments where a brief rise is followed by another drop.
Thinking to catch a reversal
My EA places emphasis on price moving in one direction and then briefly retracing.
This kind of movement is called a reversal.
However, even if a reversal appears to occur, it may continue moving in the original direction.
Therefore, I do not rely solely on reversal signals; I also confirm the direction of the higher timeframe and the strength of price movement.
4. Why profits grew this time
I rode the trend successfully
One major reason profits grew is likely that I was able to ride the market trend.
A trending market is one where price continues in a certain direction.
When an uptrend continues, buy decisions tend to work well; when a downtrend continues, sell decisions tend to work well.
It is possible that Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA's thinking matched the market environment this time.
Market conditions, not just skill, also played a role
I do not attribute all profits to the EA's ability alone.
The clear direction of the market and the nature of price movement being favorable also influenced the outcome.
Even with the same settings, on days when prices move little or bounce up and down, results can differ.
5. The GOLD market has two faces
What is a trend market
A trend market is one where price tends to move in the same direction.
For example, if GOLD's price repeatedly hits new highs and its lows gradually rise, it is considered an uptrend.
In such markets, following the current flow makes trading easier.
What is a range-bound market
A range-bound market is one where price moves within a certain range, back and forth.
If price goes up and then goes down, and then goes up again, etc.,
continuation of this movement makes trading decisions harder.
Why the same EA can yield different results
Each EA has strengths and weaknesses for different markets.
An EA strong in trend markets does not necessarily function the same in range markets.
Right now, Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA has more challenges in range-bound markets compared to trend markets.
6. Current challenge: range-bound markets
Frequent small reversals
In range markets, prices reverse many times.
But distinguishing real reversals from temporary moves is not easy.
Price may drop right after the EA signals a buy, or rise right after it signals a sell.
Risk of ongoing stop-outs
In range markets, stop-outs can occur repeatedly.
Even small losses can accumulate and gradually erode profits.
On the 1-minute chart, many trading signals can be generated in a short time, so caution is required.
How to prevent consecutive trades in a range
I am considering the following improvements.
Limit the number of trades within a certain period
After a recent stop-out, do not immediately reorder
Avoid trading when price movement is small
Stop new orders when market direction is unclear
Stop trading when the spread widens
7. Why you should not judge by short-term gains alone
Past market performance does not guarantee future results
Even if profits were made in past markets, future markets may not move in the same way.
Gold prices are influenced by the dollar, interest rates, economic indicators, political developments, and geopolitical news.
If market conditions change, rules that worked before may become weaker.
The danger of overfitting to past data
If you fine-tune EA settings too closely to past markets, it may not function in other periods.
This is the problem of overfitting to historical data.
We must check not only past test results but also whether it works in periods we have not yet examined.
Trading involves costs in reality
In actual trading, there are costs and slippage such as:
Spread
Fees
Slippage
Time until orders are filled
Discrepancies between expected and fill prices due to rapid price moves
On the 1-minute chart, these effects tend to be amplified.
8. How to perform reliable validation
Test with data close to real price movement
Testing EA on historical price movement is called backtesting.
In this process, it is important to use not only simple open/high/low/close data but also as much real tick data as possible.
A tick is a record of each price movement.
The order and execution results can change depending on the sequence of price movements within a minute.
Test in different periods
It is necessary to validate by dividing market states as follows:
Trend markets
Range-bound markets
Markets with large price movements
Markets with small price movements
Days when economic indicators are released
Days of sharp declines or surges
It is important to test across multiple periods, not just one.
Test on a real account with small amounts first
Even if past tests show good results, you should not immediately invest large sums.
First, use a demo account or small lots to confirm actual execution conditions.
I will compare backtest results with actual trading results before deciding further.
9. A system to prepare for sudden price moves
Be cautious around economic indicators and news
GOLD can be influenced by U.S. interest rates and dollar movements.
Also, after major economic indicators or political news releases, prices can move sharply in a short period.
Therefore, it is necessary to have a mechanism to refrain from new orders before and after major announcements.
Stop trading if the spread widens
Spread is the difference between buy and sell prices.
When the spread widens, trading becomes less favorable from the outset.
If the spread widens beyond normal, I am considering stopping new orders.
Set a daily loss limit
If the EA incurs losses repeatedly in a day, it is important to stop trading for that day.
For example, once daily losses reach a pre-set amount, stop trading beyond that point.
Increasing profits is not the only goal; avoiding large losses is also crucial in EA development.
10. What will be improved next
Identify range-bound markets
In the future, I plan to enhance the ability to identify range-bound markets by checking price movement range and momentum.
We cannot perfectly foresee the market, but we aim to reduce trading when there is no clear direction.
Limit consecutive entries
To prevent multiple orders in a short time, I am considering limiting consecutive entries.
I will check recent trade results and the number of trades within a set period to reduce reckless re-entries.
Adjust settings by market state
Different judgments are required for trend and range markets.
Therefore, I am considering switching entry conditions and trade counts according to market state.
However, increasing the number of settings can risk overfitting past data.
Even after improvements, I will verify across other periods as well.
11. How to evaluate Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA
Look at both profits and losses
When evaluating an EA, it is dangerous to look only at profits.
The following numbers should also be checked.
Maximum loss
Maximum drawdown
Number of losing trades in a row
Average profit per trade
Average loss per trade
Number of trades
Periods with concentrated losses
Maximum drawdown is the greatest drop in equity from its peak.
Assess how stable it is
A high win rate does not guarantee overall profit if a single loss is large.
Conversely, even with a moderate win rate, good balance between profits and losses can lead to long-term stability.
Therefore, I do not evaluate EA solely by win rate.
It is still under development
Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA is not a finished product yet.
While it produced good results in trend markets, there is room for improvement in range markets.
Going forward, I will continue to refine it, focusing not only on profits but also on losses and challenging market conditions.
12. Summary: aim for a system you can use longer-term, not just short-term profits
I was surprised by the large profits in a short period this time.
However, it would be dangerous to conclude that “this EA will always be profitable” from these results alone.
This time, the ability to ride the trend market might have been a major factor.
On the other hand, in range markets, trading signals are more likely to be incorrect, leading to losses.
From now on, I will emphasize the following improvements.
Reduce unnecessary trades in range markets
Stop trading during sudden price moves
Set a daily loss limit
Check actual spreads and fill conditions
Validate across multiple timeframes
Forward test cautiously with small funds
What I am aiming for is not an EA that makes huge profits only briefly.
It is a system that can be used for a long time across various market environments without forcing outcomes.
References
World Gold Council
I checked 2026 gold market dynamics, gold price fluctuations, and central bank gold purchases.
https://www.gold.org/download/file/20795/Q1_2026_GDT_Press_Release_29_April.pdf
Bank for International Settlements
I checked analyses on rising gold prices, investor movements, and price volatility.
https://www.bis.org/publications/qr-202512/volatility-challenges-risk-taking
MetaTrader 5 Official Documentation
I confirmed how to validate EA, including actual ticks, spread, and tick generation.
https://www.mql5.com/en/docs/runtime/testing
MetaTrader Official Strategy Tester
I looked at forward testing to avoid overfitting to past data.
https://www.metatrader5.com/en/automated-trading/strategy-tester
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
I checked algorithmic trading and risks when the market changes rapidly.
https://www.sec.gov/files/algo_trading_report_2020.pdf
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
I reviewed cautions on gold and silver commodity trading and short-term price movements.
https://www.cftc.gov/LearnAndProtect/AdvisoriesAndArticles/CustomerAdvisory_SocialMedia_Metals.html
Japan Exchange Group
I confirmed margins, drastic price changes, and potential additional losses in futures trading.
https://www.jpx.co.jp/derivatives/risk/futures/index.html
Financial Services Agency
I checked risks in FX-margined trading and during market volatility.
https://www.fsa.go.jp/ordinary/iwagai/
CME Group
I checked gold futures trading hours and 2026 gold futures contract specifications.
https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-1-oz-gold-futures.html
SSRN: Research on Overfitting in Backtesting
I reviewed issues of overfitting to past data and multiple validation methods.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2326253
SSRN: Session-based Price Formation in Gold and Silver
I checked studies on price movements by time of day.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/7257240.pdf?abstractid=7257240&mirid=1&type=2
Disclaimer
This article introduces the development process and operation results of Gold_Reversal_Assistant_EA.
It does not guarantee future profits.
Gold and FX and other margin trading can incur large losses.
If you actually trade, please do so with your own judgment and responsibility, with funds you can afford to lose.