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11/06/2026 05:30
Release： 11/06/2026 05:30
Update： 11/06/2026 05:30
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?? United States October Jobs Report｜Is the labor recovery real? The divergence point of the dollar and gold【November 6, 2026】

?This article was posted on November 6, 2026＝＞Latest related articles?

Tonight, the October Employment Report for the United States will be released. Last time, the pace of payroll growth was only 29,000, but this time a recovery to around 65,000 is expected.

Meanwhile, the wage growth rate is expected to slow to 2.9% year over year. The market is watching whether the recovery in employment and the cooling of wage inflation can be confirmed simultaneously.


?? U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings? Break-even with Dollar and Gold

Overview:An important indicator that examines U.S. payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. The strength of employment not only signals the state of the U.S. economy but also influences the Fed’s monetary policy and interest rate outlook.

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Release Date and Time:Friday, November 6, 2026, 22:30 (Japan Time)

Previous Value (September):

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +29,000
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2%
  • Average hourly earnings: +0.1% m/m, +3.0% y/y

Market Expectations (October):

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +65,000
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2%
  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y

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? If the results exceed expectations

If employment rises sharply and average hourly earnings come in strong, concerns about wage inflation and the resilience of the U.S. economy will intensify.

With markets perceiving that the Fed will not rush to cut rates, U.S. interest rates may rise, supporting the dollar. A higher dollar and higher yields can also weigh on gold, which bears no interest.

? If the results fall short of expectations

If payroll growth slows and average hourly earnings decline, labor market slack may be perceived. The expectation of Fed rate cuts may strengthen, leading to a drop in U.S. rates and a weaker dollar, which could lift gold.

However, if employment deteriorates severely, concerns about a recession could also put downward pressure on stock prices.

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➡️ If as expected

If payrolls are close to expectations, the focus shifts to average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. Even with a recovery in employment, if wage growth slows, inflation pressures may ease the outlook.

Conversely, if wages remain strong, expectations for higher interest rates persist.

? Recap and Outlook

This time, not only employment recovery but also the wage growth rate is a key point. Whether wages calm down or wage inflation persists will affect the dollar and gold differently.

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Next week, on the 10th, the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release is also scheduled. By combining the employment data with price indicators, we will assess the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.