[Tonight's Employment Statistics] Will the USD/JPY surge or plunge? The reason I won't buy at 22:30

Tonight at 22:30, the USD/JPY may move significantly.
Friday, November 6, 2026, the US jobs report is in focus.
The jobs report is an economic indicator that checks whether the number of people employed in the United States has increased or decreased.
Based on the results, the USD/JPY could surge or plummet.
? Tonight's key figures
Market expectations are as follows.

• Nonfarm payrolls: +65,000

• Unemployment rate: 4.2%

• Average hourly earnings: +0.3% month over month

What matters is not only whether the numbers are good or bad, buthow they compare to expectations.
? A discussion by three geniuses!
?A: Extremely optimistic
“If the results are better than expected, the dollar may be bought! There is a possibility that USD/JPY could rise back into the 158 range!”
?B: Extremely cautious
“If the numbers are worse than expected, the yen may strengthen. And right after the release it can swing up and down suddenly, which is dangerous!”
?C: A different perspective
“Even if the numbers look good, the price may still fall. If the market expected a stronger result, it might be sold off.”
? Why I’m not buying tonight
I generally aim for USD/JPY long positions.
However, I don’t want to jump in right after the jobs report.
Previously, when I set stop-loss on gold trades, the急変動 caused by the jobs report prevented the expected exit, leading to a large loss.
That’s why I am especially cautious this time.
It’s not that big moves are a chance; a chance comes when it fits my rules.
✅ Conclusion
Tonight, it’s not clear whether USD/JPY will rise or fall before the release.
I won’t chase the price movement right after the release; I plan to wait calmly and confirm a buy signal afterward.
In FX, the most important thing is not winning today, but being able to participate in the market tomorrow.
Will you trade the jobs data tonight, or observe and wait?