【November 5｜Drive30】Nikkei average falls 1,110 yen but the post-event verdict is NONE | The days with big moves are the days to adhere to fixed rules
November 5, 2026 (Thu) | Daily Market Report
Nikkei 225 falls by 1,110 points.
Nevertheless, Drive30's
post-judgment is "NONE"
The Tokyo stock market on November 5 saw a sharp decline in the Nikkei Stock Average.
Looking at the market's large moves, you might think, “Shouldn’t I have entered selling today?”
However, large price swings and the fulfillment of trading conditions are two different matters.
Today as well, we used archived market data to perform an after-the-fact verification based on Drive30's fixed rules.
Today’s post-hoc reference judgment
※This result is a post-verification using saved prices.
This is not the official live delivery result for the day.
01｜Nikkei averages four days of decline
On November 5, the Nikkei Stock Average fell 1,110.73 points from the previous business day and finished trading at 61,077.90.
Declines in AI and semiconductor-related stocks weighed on the Nikkei average.
On the other hand, TOPIX rose. Viewing only the Nikkei average versus looking at the market as a whole can yield different impressions on a given day.
02｜Morning fell, but conditions not met
In the morning session, selling pressure was seen in the Nikkei 225 futures.
However, Drive30 does not simply decide “SELL because it went down in the morning” or “BUY because it rose in the morning.”
We check multiple pre-defined conditions, and if the conditions are not met, we abstain from trading.
Even if the reference direction shows a downward tendency, trading conditions may not be met. The reference direction and the trading signal are separate concepts.
03｜Even if it subsequently declines sharply
Today’s market moved sharply downward even after the morning judgment window ended.
Looking only at the result, you might think, “I should have sold.”
However, if you rewrite the morning judgment after observing subsequent moves, the purpose of verification is lost.
On days with large moves,
if conditions are not met, abstain.
Abstaining does not necessarily prevent losses. Today, in post-hoc verification, trading conditions did not meet the criteria. We record that fact as-is.
04｜What Drive30 cherishes
The more trading opportunities there are, the not necessarily better a system is.
On the other hand, simply abstaining from trading does not generate profits either.
Drive30 emphasizes judging the same predefined conditions on both trading days and non-trading days.
Morning reference direction: SELL BIAS
Post-hoc reference signal: NONE
Post-hoc virtual trades: 0
Post-hoc theoretical P/L: 0pt
225 Simple Edge - Drive30
Drive30 is a tool to organize the Nikkei 225 futures trading judgments by fixed rules as an analytical support tool.
・BUY: Buy conditions met
・SELL: Sell conditions met
・NONE: Conditions not met and abstain
It is not intended to require daily trading; it provides trading references only when conditions are met.
This is not an automated trading tool. Trade execution is up to the user’s judgment.
We welcome your questions and feedback
“What does abstaining mean?”
“Are there days with no signals?”
“How does Drive30 use it?”
If you have any concerns, please feel free to contact us via GogoJungle’s messenger feature.
Individual trading instructions and investment advice are not provided.
Even with large price movements, do not change the judgment result afterward.