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?? United States - October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index ? The course of the U.S. economy and the dollar

This article was posted on November 4, 2026＝＞Latest related articles?


November 4, 2026

In tonight's U.S. market, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. It is an important indicator following the ADP employment report and is in focus as a gauge of the strength of the U.S. economy.

In particular this time, with the market environment after the U.S. midterm elections showing dollar softness, attention is on how the results of economic indicators will affect the dollar and gold.

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?? October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Overview：A confidence index that surveys the service sector in the United States, covering business activity, new orders, employment, and other conditions. A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Release date/time：November 5, 2026 (Thursday) 00:00 Japan time

Previous value：54.9

Market forecast：54.8

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? If the forecast is exceeded

Service sector activity is stronger than market expectations. The domestic strength of the U.S. economy is in focus, and expectations for Fed rate cuts may fade. It could be a factor supporting the dollar through higher U.S. interest rates, potentially putting upward pressure on gold.

? If the forecast is missed

The momentum in the service sector may be weakening, raising concerns about the U.S. economy. Expectations for rate cuts may strengthen, and a decline in U.S. interest rates or a weaker dollar could provide a tailwind for gold.

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➡️ If in line with forecasts

Near 54.8, it may not be a big surprise relative to market expectations. However, the breakdown is important. In particular, pay attention to the employment index and the inputs price index.

If employment remains strong, it signals labor market resilience, and higher input prices could raise inflation concerns.

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? Recap and Outlook

The main points this time are whether the U.S. service sector continues to expand and whether price inflation pressures remain.

Look not only at the overall index but also at the components for employment and input prices.

On the 5th, the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting (Minutes) will be released. Not only the dollar but also moves in the USD/JPY and gold are worth watching.