Gold falls sharply, be cautious about shorting from here. On the long-term chart, a buy bias is expected, anticipating a substantial rebound

Gold has fallen sharply.

Looking at this move, some of you might be thinking, “Will it go even lower?” or “I want to short on a rebound.”

However, my view is a little different.

On the long-term timeframe, I see it as at a level where buying becomes worth considering. I expect a substantial rebound may come from here.

So for now, I’m cautious about chasing shorts by only watching the downward momentum.

When it’s falling, I want to look at it on weekly charts

Here is Gold on the weekly chart.

After a large rally, it has fallen recently. Looking only at the recent decline, the focus tends to shift toward selling.

But,the fact that it is dropping right now does not mean it will keep dropping forever.

From the current level on the long-term chart, I’m more focused on the potential rebound beyond this than chasing further downside.

There is a possibility of one more downside move. Still, I’m expecting a rebound

Of course, it hasn’t been decided that this is the bottom. There is a possibility of one more downward move.

Just because I view a buying level here, it doesn’t mean I expect it to rise in a straight line immediately.

My current view is this combination.

“It might still go down” and “there could be a large rebound ahead” can coexist if you separate by time frame.

Shorting from here should not underestimate the rebound

What I especially want to convey this time is here.

I think it’s wise to stay wary of a rebound when shorting gold.

After a sharp drop, it’s easy to feel like you can just sell and capture gains. But if you base your positions on the assumption that the downtrend will continue, you may delay your reaction when a rebound comes.

Now I am more focused on a rebound from the long-term chart than continuing the down move.

However, this is my market view at present. I am not asserting the timing or price level of the rebound; if price action deviates from my expectations, I will reassess.

For those who want to learn my method and how I form judgments

For those who want to be able to construct such judgments themselves, I recommend a complete set that includes my method teachings and personal consulting.

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“Even though my trend view was correct, my execution faltered.”
“I intended to catch a rebound, but ended up holding for too long.”

If you have such concerns, please check the product page for details on the教材 and support contents.

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