Even if you decide "if I lose, I'll quit," you can’t actually do it that way in the real match.
“If the number of losses reaches three, I will quit for the day.”
I have decided that many times.
But, to be honest, there aren’t that many times when I could keep that promise.
This article is about the gap between “setting a rule” and “carrying it out,” and what I realized about it.
■ First, I’ll state my stance
I am the person who created the MT4 tool “Posi-Posi Addiction Buster.” Since I’m talking about my own product, please read with that in mind. I will state what I cannot do first.
This tool does not improve win rate. It does not predict the market. It does not provide buy/sell signals. What it can change is just how you lose.
■ The idea of “If … then …”
In psychology, there is a concept called “if-then planning” (implementation intentions).
Rather than setting abstract goals like “work hard” or “be patient,” it’s a way to predefine a conditional statement like “If situation X occurs, then perform action Y.” It is said to be introduced in a wide range of areas, including dieting and study habit formation.
When applied to trading, it becomes this.
“If today’s losses reach a certain amount, stop trading.”
“If the number of losses reaches a certain number, then I won’t enter again for the rest of the day.”
The logic is very easy to understand. I, too, have repeatedly decided my own “if-then.”
■ The problem is that you rewrite the “then” yourself
The rules I decided on were thought through when I was calm. So they make sense in principle.
But when I am in runaway mode, I am the same me, yet I make different judgments.
I was supposed to decide to stop if I had three losses, but the moment the third loss arrived, the conditional part shifted in my mind.
“Today is special, so just one more trade.”
“If I’ve come this far, I’ll make up for it and then quit.”
The decided “then (stop)” becomes rewritten as “continue a little longer.” Moreover, the self rewriting it happened to not realize it was a rewrite. I always thought I was judging calmly, as usual.
The reason why the effect of if-then planning is strong is probably because there is a premise that “the person who decided will carry it out as stated.” But a runaway mode self is the same person as the decider yet rewrites the conditions at the moment of execution. This was my biggest hurdle.
■ Therefore, I separated the execution of the “then” from my own hands
What I did with Posi-Posi Addiction Buster is simple.
The “if” part, the condition, is decided by me.
・The upper limit of losses allowed for that day (daily loss cap)
・The total upper limit including closed losses and current unrealized losses (total risk cap)
・The number of losing trades allowed for that day (loss count cap)
・The number of trades allowed for that day (trade count cap)
Declare these four before you begin trading, while you are calm.
And for the “then” part, i.e., what to do after reaching the condition, I do not leave it to my own will. When any one of the caps is reached, I close all open positions, end MT4, and lock it until 5 a.m. the next morning.
I am the one who decides now. The mechanism executes.
Put differently, I created a device that forcibly executes the if-then planning on my behalf.
■ This isn’t a story of a weak will
The concept of if-then planning is, I think, a good method. The problem is that when it comes to execution, the power to rewrite the “then” works just as strongly.
Now I understand this not as a personal weakness, but as a property of the runaway mode itself. Something decided calmly may not be executable by an uncalm self. If so, it’s better to entrust the execution part to an external mechanism.
Since thinking this way, the time I spent blaming myself for “lacking will” has decreased.
■ Some people aren’t suited for it
To be frank, I don’t recommend it for the following.
Long-term holders who keep positions for days to weeks, focusing on long-term or swing trading. Once the cap is reached, positions are closed regardless of holding period.
People running other EAs on the same MT4 who don’t want to be stopped. Because MT4 is closed entirely, other EAs stop too.
People whose main trading is on the smartphone MT4 app. For app trading, monitoring is not possible due to the仕様 (specifications).
People using the Mac version of MT4 or MT5. It does not work.
Also, once the cap is reached, you cannot resume until the next morning. There will be days when you think, “Just a little more today.” In exchange for this inconvenience, if it doesn’t suit what you want to protect, it isn’t for you.
■ Finally
“If this happens, then do this.”
Deciding is not difficult. The difficult part is carrying it out exactly as decided.
Is it possible to detach the execution from my own will? That is all I considered.
The details of the specifications and the operating conditions are all written on the product page. Since it openly lists what happens when you reach the caps, please read it once before considering adoption.
▶ Posi-Posi Addiction Buster Product Details
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/85971
※ FX is not a guaranteed principal product, and losses may exceed the invested amount due to market fluctuations. This product is an auxiliary tool to help you adhere to your pre-set trading rules and does not substitute market analysis or investment decisions. It does not completely prevent losses. Please make final investment decisions at your own responsibility.