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Economic Indicators Guide: For the US FOMC, tonight's focus is not on a rate hike but on "December Monetary Policy"

?This article was posted on October 28, 2026＝＞Latest related articles?

October 28, 2026 (Wednesday)

This edition’s focus event is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), which sets U.S. monetary policy.

In the market, keeping policy rates unchanged is seen as likely, but with inflation persistent, the focus is on whether an additional rate hike will occur at the December meeting.

 

?? U.S. October FOMC Policy Rate Announcement ? Dollar and Gold Turning Point

Overview: The FOMC is a meeting where the FRB (the U.S. central bank) decides policy rates, among other things. Keeping rates high helps curb price increases, but can more readily slow corporate borrowing and consumer spending.

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Announcement time: Thursday, October 29, 2026, 3:00 AM (Japan time)

FRB Chair press conference: same day, 3:30 AM

Previous value: Target range for the federal funds rate was 3.75–4.00%. In September’s meeting, it was raised by 0.25 percentage point.

Market expectation: For this time, a hold at 3.75–4.00% is likely. On the other hand, due to persistent inflation, many economists expect a rate hike in December.

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Market Scenarios by Outcome

? If rates rise contrary to expectations: There would be a strong emphasis on prioritizing U.S. inflation control, potentially leading to higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. USD/JPY could rise, and gold could face the burden of higher rates and a stronger dollar.

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? If rates are kept unchanged but signal a December hike: Even if the current rate stays the same, expectations of future rate increases could lift U.S. rates and the dollar. The statements at this meeting will be important for future monetary policy.

➡️ If held steady with a cautious stance toward additional hikes: Expectations for rate increases may retreat, and U.S. rates and the dollar could fall. In that case, gold may gain via tailwinds. However, reactions will depend on what the market has already priced in.

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? Recap and Outlook

This FOMC is important not only for changes in policy rates but also for how it signals the possibility of an additional December hike.

Do not judge solely by immediate price movements after the announcement; also check the 3:30 AM press conference.

For USD/JPY and gold, different reactions may emerge through changes in U.S. rates and the dollar.