[Supremely Important: Tonight's FOMC] U.S. 10-Year Treasuries Break 5% • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Holds Spark Shock • Australia CPI Accelerates Rapidly — The Full Picture of the “Judgment Night” Where Middle East Tensions and Giant Tech Earnings Inters
As of this evening, October 28, 2026 (Wednesday), the global foreign exchange and financial markets are wrapped in extreme tension ahead of this week's most important event, the policy announcement from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
The core event drawing market attention is rushing toward 3:00 AM Japan time on the 29th.
“U.S. FOMC policy rate announcement and statement”, and
“Powell FRB Chair’s regular press conference”
However, what dominates tonight’s market is not the FOMC alone. Across Asia to European hours, a series of strong, market-disruptive facts have already come to light.
U.S. 10-year yield climbs back to the psychological threshold of “5.0112%”, and the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise toward around 102.40.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprises markets by keeping the policy rate at 2.75%, overturning expectations of a rate hike. NZD plunges against the dollar by as much as 1.7% in a dramatic move.
Australia’s Q3 2026 CPI up +1.3% QoQ, core inflation accelerating to 3.6% YoY, lifting expectations of an RBA rate hike next week.
Israel’s election results show a near-tie among major blocs, likely falling short of a majority. Coalition negotiations may be protracted, and geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East remains.
Canada Bank of Bank of Canada policy rate announcement at 22:45 tonight, and after-hours, Microsoft and Alphabet’s mega-tech earnings are on deck.
Back in Japan, the previous day,Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama referenced “resolute measures” in the FX market, with vigilance for potential real-weapon intervention near the 158 yen level.
As currencies move in completely opposite directions, we will strip away speculation and thoroughly decompose and explain the confirmed facts and logical transmission paths.
Chapter 1: “Confirmed Facts” Unearthed Today and
Importance Matrix
A整理 of the important factors confirmed in the market by 16:50 today.
Chapter 2: U.S. FOMC — Focus on
Whether there will be a December rate hike
In the FOMC due to be announced at 3:00 AM Japan time on the 29th, market consensus largely agrees on a hold of the policy rate (maintaining the current range).
Therefore, the actual policy rate number is unlikely to surprise,
what will decide the market is the wording changes in the statementand
“Powell’s press conference at 3:30 AM”.
[Four major environments constraining the Fed’s policy judgments]
1) Inflation risk from crude oil staying around the $113 barrel mark
2) Resilient U.S. jobs and consumer spending (no recession signals)
3) Tightening effect from 5% on the U.S. 10-year yield (side effects of higher rates)
4) Whether to keep December’s rate hike option in the wording
Three major scenario assumptions from the FOMC results
Chapter 3: The Australian-Oceanian Currencies — Dark and Light —
RBNZ hold shock vs Aussie CPI acceleration
Today during Asia time, the most dramatic divergence was seen between neighboring currencies New Zealand and Australia.
1. New Zealand (NZD): Plunges on unexpected hold
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) today decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at2.75%.
Voting breakdown:A narrow 4-3 split (3 members favored a 25bp hike, 4 favored keeping rates unchanged).
Market reaction:Expectations for a hike were fully betrayed, and NZD/USD briefly fell about 1.7% to 0.55831.
Background and logic:Although September’s overall inflation slowed to 3.7% from 4.1% YoY, core inflation hovered near the upper end of the target range (1–3%). With oil staying high, risks to push to 4Q were noted, but the bank remained cautious about the persistence of rate hikes ahead.
Breman’s president later said in the press conference that “further tightening may be necessary,” but the hawkish expectations in the market fell away, leaving NZD/JPY’s upside very heavy.Market hawkishness faded but the fact weighs heavily on the currency’s upside.
2. Australia (AUD): CPI upside re-ignites rate hike expectations
Meanwhile, Australia’s Q3 CPI rose +1.3% QoQ,
and the trimmed mean (core inflation) annualized at3.6%,
clearing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range (2–3%).
Market reaction:Expectations of an RBA rate hike next week surged, and AUD/USD jumped toward around 0.70345.
Caution:While AUD fundamentals are solid, if U.S. yields jump after tonight’s FOMC or if global equities fall, AUD/JPY could be affected by risk-off moves, so observe dollar pairs and cross Yen separately.
Chapter 4: Middle East tensions and Crude at $113 —
Israel election vote tally
Geopolitical risk and oil markets are constraining the entire night’s financial markets via inflation pathways.
1. Current oil price
As of the previous day’s settlement, Brent down to 113.88 per barrel (−1.67%), and WTI at 99.90 (−1.83%), reflecting profit-taking ahead of talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan with Iran.
However, this is merely a temporary autonomous adjustment to excessive surges. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities remain, so geopolitical oil risk premia have not faded.
2. Israel election tally (AP reporting)
Israel’s election votes are currently being tallied.
Likud under Netanyahu: about 20.6% of votes
Yesh Atid under Yair Lapid’s coalition: about 16.8% of votes
Out of 120 seats, no party or bloc is clearly poised to secure a majority (61 seats). Netanyahu’s strict stance toward Iran persists, but coalition talks with Arab parties and centrist groups are likely to be difficult.
“Political vacuum leading to military uncertainties” remains a key downside support for crude prices.
This will be a factor.
Chapter 5: Tonight’s composite events and
Time Schedule
From 22:45 tonight through early morning, important events unfold by the minute.
【Tonight–Tomorrow’s ultra-important schedule (Japan time)】
・22:45 ?? Bank of Canada policy rate announcement & Monetary Policy Report
・23:30 ?? Bank of Canada Governor Macklem press conference
・03:00 ?? U.S. FOMC policy rate announcement & statement release ???
・03:30 ?? Powell press conference ???
・After U.S. market close ?? Microsoft earnings
・After U.S. market close ?? Alphabet earnings
・10/30 (Fri) around noon ?? Bank of Japan policy meeting & Outlook Report release
Canada’s BoC and mega-tech earnings focal points
Bank of Canada (22:45):Which to emphasize: commodity-country benefits from higher oil vs domestic growth slowdown. A hawkish stance would buy CAD; concern for growth would sell CAD.
Microsoft and Alphabet earnings (early morning):Beyond sales figures, the key is whether AI-related capital expenditure yields returns. If disappointment in capex burden arises as last week, a stock market plunge could trigger risk-off demand for yen.
Chapter 6: USD/JPY — Practical chart analysis and “defense lines”
With the U.S. 10-year yield at 5.01%, the pair has a higher floor, but the “intervention line” from Finance Minister Katayama looms overhead.
【Upper resistance levels】
★ 158.50–158.55 yen: [Daily 200-day moving average & active intervention alert zone] ↑ 158.20–158.30 yen: recent high zone or resistance band ↑
★ 158.00 yen: Psychological threshold (whether it can be sustained above this level is key) ↑
★ 157.80–157.85 yen: first resistance in US/ European hours
――――――
Current: 157.60–157.75 yen range (sideways)
――――――
【Lower support levels】
★ 157.40–157.44 yen: today’s Tokyo session low & near-term defense line ↓
★ 157.00–157.10 yen: psychological threshold and rollover support ↓
156.50 yen: recent pullback support ↓
★ 156.00–156.08 yen: last week’s sharp drop low and daily absolute defense line
Night trading execution rules
Can 157.44 yen (today’s low) be maintained?
If 157.44 yen holds before the FOMC, there is energy to test higher levels. If broken, positions should be adjusted toward 157.00 yen.
Longs above 158.00 yen — “be ready to exit immediately”:
Even if FOMC is hawkish and drives into the 158 range, the previous warning from Finance Minister Katayama about resolute measures remains valid, so at around 158.50 there will be strong profit-taking selling and potential rate checks or actual intervention risk. Stay vigilant.
Summary: Surviving tonight’s market
“Logical thinking”
Tonight’s market is not a set-piece where you lock in a direction beforehand and gamble.
“Do not fall into the trap of pre-committing to a direction and gambling.”
.
Learn from the RBNZ case:
The NZ central bank, where a hike was almost certain, chose to hold by a narrow 4-3 margin, causing the currency to spike by about 1.7% in an instant. When the market’s pricing and the central bank’s decision diverge, the impact is enormous.
Immediately after the FOMC release, watch for confirmation on the U.S. 10-year yield and the dollar index:
Do not be swayed by initial choppiness; wait to see whether the 10-year yield stabilizes above 5.00% or breaks lower before entering.
Prepare for potential stock moves from megatech earnings tomorrow morning:
Even after the FOMC, earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet could trigger Nasdaq futures moves and ripple into early-morning cross-yen risk-off dynamics.
Practice strict money management, reduce lot sizes compared with usual, and trade with disciplined adherence to objective, confirmed price action.
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