【FX Course】The moment you win is more dangerous than when you lose
the “times you win” are more dangerous
Hello, this is Leo.
When looking back on trades, many people reflect on losing trades.
“What went wrong?”
This is naturally important.
But I actually want to pay attention to something even more than that:
and how they occurred
I think this is crucial.
Winning does not equal correct
For example,
the RR is also poor
chasing after a sharp move
the stop-loss is ambiguous
Imagine making such trades.
But the result is, +30 pips.
Then,
“It was correct to enter after all”
you tend to think.
However, this is quite dangerous.
justified by profits
The scariest thing is “doing the same thing next time”
Once you break the rules and win, you become more likely to do that judgment again from then on.
↓
Try to chase next time too
↓
Now you get in at a high price
↓
Huge stop-loss
This is the pattern.
In other words, one win can reinforce a bad habit.
So
one win can strengthen a bad habit.
Conversely, you should preserve “good losses”
On the contrary,
the target area is clear
confirm a turning point
set stop-loss and take-profit in advance
RR is not a problem
and then you were stopped out.
This, looked at from the result alone, is a loss.
But in my view,
it could be a trade worth doing again
.
Trades can be categorized into 4 types
If I were to categorize, I would think of the trade result in four parts.
Profit while following the rules. Ideal.
Followed the rules but stopped out. No problem continuing.
Points for improvement are clear.
The one to be most cautious of. Profit hides rule violations.
What I am most wary of is “④”
If you lose on a bad trade, you usually reflect.
But if you win on a bad trade, you do not reflect.
Rather,
your own judgment was correct.
If that state continues, trades outside the rules increase.
When you are on a winning streak, you tend to be careless
For example, you win three in a row.
Then,
“Even if I enter a bit early, it's okay”
“This much I can raise the lot size”
and your judgment tends to loosen.
But the market does not know you are on a winning streak.
does not raise the expected value of the next trade
Be careful with lot-size increases right after profits
When you win, your capital increases.
Then you suddenly increase the lot size.
Then when you lose once,
you can wipe out several rounds of profits at once
in one go.
If you change the lot size, I think it should be based on capital management rules, not because you won.
instead of just because you won.
When you win, there are three checks
When you win, besides the profit amount, I would check
② Were stop-loss and take-profit planned?
③ Can you do it again in the same situation?
If these three are YES, it is a trade you want to reproduce.
Conversely,
“I moved the stop-loss”
“It happened to come back”
then, even if you won, it is a target for improvement.
A large profit does not equal a good trade
For example, a trade of +100,000 yen.
But it violated the rules.
On the other hand, a trade of -10,000 yen
but everything followed the rules.
I would like to retain, in the long term,
because
it is reproducible.
What we want to keep in trading is a “reproducible win”
Rather than a one-time big win,
under the same conditions, you can make the same judgment again and again.
This is more important.
“Can I do it again?”
Even this alone changes the evaluation of trades quite a bit.
In trading, people tend to reflect only when they lose.
But what you should really pay attention to is,
instead of reflecting,
instead, when you make a profit it’s easy to think that judgment is correct.
And, you may do the same thing next time.
So, you should confirm when you win as well.
Can you reproduce it?
Can you make the same judgment next time?
Increase good wins and reduce bad wins.
This is also very important for continuing trading over the long term.
