[Oct 25] Next week's operation briefing — the star is 10/29 (Thu) 03:00 US FOMC policy rate★★★
The close for 10/19 (Mon) to 10/23 (Fri) is 156.83 (weekly chart is bearish, down 1.19 yen from the previous week). The star of next week is 10/29 (Thu) 03:00 US FOMC policy rate ★★★.
US interest rates themselves. The statement and press conference together are the biggest source of volatility. I will summarize the indicators, scenarios, and Monday’s gap forecast for the next week.
First 60 seconds｜Next Week’s Strategy Meeting
Key Indicators Next Week (10/26 (Mon)〜10/30 (Fri))
| Date | Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/27 (Tue) | 23:00 |  | Consumer Confidence Index (CB) | ★★ | 80.5 | 81.9 |
| 10/28 (Wed) | Time TBD |  | Budget Proposal | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/28 (Wed) | Time TBD | | Autumn Fiscal Report | ★★ | — | — |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 03:00 | | FOMC Policy Rate | ★★★ | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 03:00 | | FOMC Statement | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 03:30 | | FRB Chair Press Conference | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 21:30 | | GDP – Advance Estimate (QoQ annualized) | ★★★ | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 21:30 | | PCE Core Deflator (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 21:30 | | GDP Deflator (QoQ, advance) | ★★ | 3.5% | 6.2% |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 21:30 | | Initial Jobless Claims | ★★ | 198K | 194K |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 22:15 |  | ECB Policy Rate | ★★★ | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 22:15 | | ECB Statement | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/29 (Thu) | 22:45 | | ECB President Press Conference | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 08:30 |  | Tokyo Metropolitan Core CPI (YoY) | ★★ | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 10/30 (Fri) | Around Noon | | BOJ Policy Rate | ★★★ | <1.25% | <1.25% |
| 10/30 (Fri) | Around Noon | | BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting – Policy Announcement | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/30 (Fri) | Around Noon | | BOJ Outlook Report | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 15:30 Approx. | | BOJ Governor Press Conference | ★★★ | — | — |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 18:00 | | ★★ | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 18:00 | | Germany – GDP (QoQ, Flash) | ★★ | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 10/30 (Fri) | 21:30 | | Employment Cost Index (QoQ) | ★★ | 0.8% | 0.9% |
All 69 items, including ★1, are listed in the weekly calendar image below.
Weekly Scenario
Expected Range155.39 (ATR)〜 157.86 (Weekly MA52)
Main CallA move within the 155.39〜157.86 range is the main outlook. If a direction appears, it would be from the FOMC policy rate at 03:00 on 10/29 (Thu).
CounterIf it breaks above 157.86, expect an upward move; if it falls below 155.39, expect a downward move, exiting the range.
Per the rules, next week’s range is 155.39〜157.86. The Friday close was 156.83, and half of the weekly ATR (287 pips) was allocated above and below, with the upper bound at the weekly MA52 and the lower bound kept as a reference. The main expectation is a range-bound retracement within 155.39〜157.86, with a potential directional move if the 10/29 (Thu) 03:00 FOMC rate decision provides a signal. If it breaks above 157.86, it would move higher; if it breaks below 155.39, it would move lower. I’ll confirm the results on Saturday.
Monday Gap Forecast
Friday’s NY close was 156.83. In the past three years, Mondays have opened gaps of 10 pips or more with a 53% probability, and 82% of gaps that opened were filled within the same day, and 93% within the week. There are no major events planned for this weekend. This is only a recap of historical data, and please note that next week may differ.
Validation Data
The average dollar-yen range one hour after the FOMC rate announcement (past 25 occasions) was 84 pips, and the direction persisted one hour later in 64% of cases. Sixty-four percent also means that about one in three reversals occur. It can be tough with discretionary trading ^^;
This Week’s Vote
Next Friday’s NY close relative to this week’s 156.83 yen: up? flat? down? The result will be announced around Saturday midday ^^ Votes are also accepted on X.
Up (+50 pips or more) / Almost flat (±50 pips) / Down (more than −50 pips)
I’d be happy if you could share your view with a like or comment on this article.
Next week, I will continue to record using this yardstick. The tools I use for validation are summarized here.Tsumi @ FX Method Validation Channel
What FX Method Research Institute publishes on GogoJungle
※Validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: Based on Forex Factory / Tradays, edited by us. Price: Twelve Data
※These are Tsumi’s personal views. Please make investment decisions on your own.