[FX Pitfall] From 158 yen to 156 yen in a sudden drop! The dangerous reason to "buy because it got cheaper"

Conclusion: Even if the USD/JPY falls by 2 yen, it doesn’t necessarily mean a buying opportunity!

Last week, the USD/JPY collapsed from the 158 yen range to the 156 yen range.

In times like this, you might think:

“If it was 158 yen and now it’s 156 yen, I can buy cheap, right?”

But, in FX, this line of thinking is dangerous.

? Why is it dangerous when it’s cheaper?

For example, what if the USD/JPY you bought at 156 yen falls to 154 yen?

If you bought 10,000 dollars, that’s a loss of about 20,000 yen.

Even if you think it’s cheap and buy, it can become even cheaper.

This is the scary part of FX.

? Three geniuses debate!

? A: Ultra-optimistic

“If it falls by 2 yen, it’s a huge opportunity! If it rebounds, I could win big!”

? B: Ultra-cautious

“Wait! Is there any proof the decline has ended? What if it falls further?”

? C: A different perspective

“First of all, being cheap compared to 158 yen is a different topic from whether now is the time to buy, isn’t it?”

I think C’s way of thinking is the most important.

? I used to fail as well

I used to aim for both long and short trades.

Sell because it fell.

Buy because it rose.

But the moment I entered, it moved in the opposite direction.

I experienced that “back-and-forth beating” many times.

Furthermore, even after confirming the buying condition and entering, the price would return after stopping out.

I was frustrated, but I stopped out according to the rules.

What I learned then was

that “having a correct forecast” and “following the rules” are separate things.

✅ My rules now

① Basically only long positions

② Confirm an uptrend on the 15-minute and 5-minute charts

③ Wait for a pullback on the 1-minute chart

④ Always set a stop loss

⑤ Aim for a few selective trades per month (3–4)

I don’t buy just because the price has fallen.

? Finally

What’s important in FX is not buying at the absolute lowest price.

It’s buying when the conditions you set are met.

Missing a chance feels painful.

But losing your capital due to haste is even more painful.

From now on, I will wait as long as needed.

I will survive no matter what.

That is my FX.

Do you feel like buying when prices plunge sharply?