Next Week Economic Data Forecast｜October 26–31, 2026｜FOMC, ECB, Bank of Japan, and US GDP in focus

This article was posted on October 25, 2026 ⇒Latest related articles?

Next week, majorCentral banks in the United States, Europe, and Japan will sequentially decide on monetary policy. In addition, the release of the US Q3 2026 GDP advance estimates and the September PCE index will test the outlook for monetary policy from both growth and inflation perspectives.

※The following is a forecast based on schedules and information confirmed as of October 24. Figures for which market expectations could not be confirmed are marked as unconfirmed.

?? U.S. October FOMC Policy Rate｜Confirm the direction of the dollar and U.S. stocks

Overview: The FOMC is the meeting that determines U.S. monetary policy. Not only changes to the policy rate, but the statements and chair’s press conference are important for reading the direction of future rate cuts or hikes.

Announcement date/time: October 29, 2026 (Thu) 03:00 (Japan time)

Previous value:Policy rate upper bound 4.00% (TD Economics quoted value)
Market expectation:4.00% (TD Economics quoted value)

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:A stance tighter than expected could push up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
• ?If the outcome falls short of expectations:A stance leaning toward rate cuts or easier policy could push down U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
• ➡️If as expected:From the statement or chair’s press conference, we will confirm the possibility of future policy changes.

?? Euro area October ECB policy rate｜Focus on euro's interest rate outlook

Overview: The ECB sets monetary policy for the euro area. The focus is on how the inflation rate and economic activity will shape future policy rate actions.

Announcement date/time: October 29, 2026 (Thu) time not yet confirmed (Japan time)

Previous value:Latest policy rate value is unconfirmed
Market expectation:Unconfirmed

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:A more aggressive tightening stance than market expectations could push the euro higher.
• ?If the outcome falls short of expectations:A move toward rate cuts could push the euro lower.
• ➡️If as expected:Pay attention to Lagarde’s press conference and the future policy direction.

?? U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimates｜Check the pace of the economy

Overview: GDP shows the value added of goods and services produced domestically and is a key indicator of economic strength. We also examine components such as personal consumption.

Announcement date/time: October 29, 2026 (Thu) 21:30 (Japan time)

Previous value:2.2% (quarterly annualized, TD Economics quoted value)
Market expectation:3.0% (quarterly annualized, TD Economics quoted value)

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:The economy’s resilience may support expectations for rate cuts to fade and could push the dollar higher.
• ?If the outcome misses expectations:Concerns about economic slowdown and stronger expectations for rate cuts could push the dollar lower.
• ➡️If as expected:We will check the details of personal consumption and the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields.

?? U.S. September PCE price index｜Confirm inflation and rate-cut expectations

Overview: The PCE price index measures price movements related to personal consumption. As it relates to the Fed’s inflation assessment, both the overall and core indices are important.

Announcement date/time: October 29, 2026 (Thu) 21:30 (Japan time)

Previous value:Unconfirmed
Market expectation:Unconfirmed

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:Inflationary pressures being stronger may push back expectations for rate cuts, potentially raising U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
• ?If the outcome misses expectations:Inflation cooling being perceived could push down U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar through rate-cut expectations.
• ➡️If as expected:We will check the revisions to core indices and the previous month’s data, and alignment with FOMC’s policy stance.

?? Japan October Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting｜Important event for the yen

Overview: The BOJ will hold a monetary policy meeting on October 29–30, with the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices to be published on the 30th. The focus is on the policy rate as well as future rate hikes and inflation outlook.

Announcement date/time: October 30, 2026 (Fri) time not confirmed (Japan time)

Previous value:The current policy rate is unconfirmed
Market expectation:Unconfirmed

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:If the stance toward rate hikes is more aggressive than market expectations, it could support the yen.
• ?If the outcome falls short of expectations:A cautious policy stance could weigh on the yen.
• ➡️If as expected:We will check the Outlook Report’s inflation projections and the explanation of future rate hikes.

?? Japan October Tokyo Core CPI｜Watch for BOJ’s judgment

Overview: Tokyo's CPI is a leading indicator of national price trends. Attention is given to items like the ex-fresh-food index to assess underlying inflation.

Announcement date/time: October 30, 2026 (Fri) around 08:30 (Japan time, scheduled)

Previous value:Unconfirmed
Market expectation:Unconfirmed

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:Faster price rises could boost expectations of BOJ rate hikes, supporting the yen.
• ?If the outcome falls short of expectations:A cooling in price rises could reduce expectations for hikes, weighing on the yen.
• ➡️If as expected:We will check the details of the ex-fresh-food components and the impact on BOJ policy decisions.

?? U.S. September Durable Goods Report｜Check corporate activity and capital expenditure

Overview: Durable goods orders indicate orders for long-lasting manufactured goods like machinery and aircraft. They reflect corporate investment and manufacturing trends.

Announcement date/time: October 27, 2026 (Tue) 21:30 (Japan time)

Previous value:−0.1% (month-over-month, TD Economics quoted value)
Market expectation:+1.4% (month-over-month, TD Economics quoted value)

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:Solid corporate activity could lift growth expectations and push the dollar higher.
• ?If the outcome misses expectations:Weak capital expenditures and manufacturing could weigh on the dollar.
• ➡️If as expected:Check the details on orders excluding aircraft and related investment components.

?? China October Manufacturing PMI｜Watch for global demand and resources

Overview: The Manufacturing PMI is an index based on surveys of firms, indicating business conditions. Above 50 suggests expansion, below 50 indicates contraction.

Announcement date/time: October 31, 2026 (Sat) around 10:30 (Japan time, scheduled)

Previous value:Unconfirmed
Market expectation:Unconfirmed

• ?If the outcome beats expectations:Expectations for Chinese growth and resource demand may rise, supporting commodity prices and related stocks.
• ?If the outcome misses expectations:Concerns about China’s economy may rise, weighing on commodity prices and related stocks.
• ➡️If as expected:Check the new orders and production trends, and whether the PMI remains above 50.

? Recap and what’s next

Next week focuses on monetary policy from the FOMC, ECB, and BOJ, as well as U.S. GDP and the PCE price index. Not only policy rate changes but also future policy posture and the alignment with actual economic and price data are key.

Compare actual results with market expectations and observe reactions in USD/JPY, U.S. Treasury yields, the euro, and stock markets.